RE: [RT] SPX, RealTraders Email List Archive

Seeing your revised chart puts us on the same page. Among Ewers, I’d say most are looking for a deeper 5^th wave. But most people haven’t heard of EW and the vast majority are bullish judging from CPC and ISEE. They’re at bullish extremes GREATER than October 2007 top. Great rallies don’t start from low CPC, just the contrary. However, many indicators show longer term oversold conditions (weekly and monthly charts). There’s a bullish rally out there, but it can’t come from the very short term overbought levels and CPC levels IMO. So, in my non EW mind, I believe we need one more bone crusher that shouldn’t take long and will be a massive V bottom propelling into the grand bear market rally currently eagerly anticipated.

About Armstrong’s PEI, its related to world economic cycles and not specifically US markets. But I watch it closely given its frequent correlation to US markets. The troubling thing is my recollection that he thought April 16 would be a ‘reactionary high’ but I can’t find that excerpt at the moment. I’ll keep looking. If he’s right, then I’m 180 degrees wrong. Hey, the market, at any time can go up or down. I’ve got a 50/50 chance.

Monday, in my thinking, will be the tell.

Good luck, Jim

From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Don Ewers
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2009 10:22 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX

Jim,

I would agree on a deeper W5 drop. If you look carefully on the chart attached the software has two target levels lower. These are shown in light blue as -5- , one around 500 which is the .618 expansion of the start of W1 to W3 low, subtracted from the W4 top. The other is the 1.0 expansion and down near 200+.

On a shorter term basis just looking at the W5, another drop would make the pattern even better. I labeled this count in yellow with this up move being minor w4 of wave 5, which is already at a very high .618 retracement of the minor wave 3 of W5.

The MOB hit makes me think we will not get it though currently. The software is generating the count, and it is important in my mind the a fairly clear five waves down have occurred to this point. I don't profess to be an EW expert by any means.

I adjusted the lower triangle line back to where it should be. The line I had before was just marking out a support level I was watching.

I added the Armstrong date as well, but as I said it may not be tied to equities?

The Venue retrograde is from Merriman who, for several weeks was calling out that event as "a high signature" of being one that could cause a change in trend. See http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM "

Venus retrograde last week worked every bit as impressively as its history would suggest, as reported in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol. 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” If a market completes a significant cycle high or low near the time of Venus retrograde, it is not uncommon to see it reverse and start a counter-trend move that lasts into the time period when Venus turns direct. Venus turns direct in five weeks (April 18). The Venus direct period also has a high historical correlation (73%) to the culmination of primary or greater cycles within ten trading days."

Don Ewers

----- Original Message -----

From: Jim Ross

To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2009 7:39 AM

Subject: RE: [RT] SPX

What a great chart. It fits extremely well with Armstrong’s April 15 PEI which he projects to be a ‘reactionary high’ (“It’s Just Time”, October 2008). I’ve got to think about it for a while since the EW powers prefer a deeper wave 5 (although Prechter felt it was a near tossup Monday, 2 weeks ago, and closed all his short positions).

On reflection, you should remove the triangle indication that encompasses the square 3 and 4. It might be a triangle in the Edwards/Magee sense, but it hasn’t any EW validity. That doesn’t necessarily change the validity of the EW count. However, on page 51 of EWP “A triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i.e., as wave four in an impulse…..” So, my criticism of the charted EW count is that there isn’t a valid EW triangle that precedes your wave 5 down. In practice, I have seen Hochberg and Prechter ignore this rule (or at least not pay attention to the ‘always’) time and again.

From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Don Ewers
Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2009 7:26 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] SPX

The Advanced GET tool called the MOB (make or break target in light blue and cyan) on the attached marked the low well, actually hitting the black timing on the MOB only one day off (prior MOB's also shown).

Also note the massive divergence below the chart on the MACD and 5/35 oscillator (used to place the Elliott wave count). Red lines are linear regression channels based on H+L/2.

Seems like a logical place for a bounce (or more)? Also some Astro time marks were present.

Don Ewers

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