I have to say
that this amazing confluence of negativity strikes me as one of either two
things: A) Sobering, or B) An internet-age substitute for the “End is Near”
walking signs that showed up in so many cartoons when I was a
kid.
FWIW, here is
none other than Taleb (Black Swan) and Mandelbrot (no intro necessary) on Jim
Lehrer Newshour this October:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/module.html?mod=0&pkg=21102008&seg=5
If you really
want to get jumpy, here’s Peter Schiff, who predicted the current conditions 2
years ago, and was summarily dismissed and ridiculed then… not any more. His
interview begins 1 minute and 50 seconds into this video:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=935047784&play=1
When we
contemplate what could actually cause such a collapse, I have a theory. It’s
not pretty. I can’t help wondering if we’re entering one final “bubble”, and
that is a Treasury bubble. The world is busy snapping up newly issued (and
pre-issued) Treasuries like potato chips. It doesn’t really matter what the
interest rate is, it’s still a loan. As the world “overshoots” into
Treasuries, I still cannot quite get my hands around the notion of how all
this is going to get paid off. I’m aware that our national debt to GDP ratio
reached something like 20% in the Great Depression, but that was partially (or
even mostly) funding the war effort. There is no such cause to focus on today.
It’s also of
note that most of the historically large bank crashes were caused by….
surprise… over-leverage and real estate bubbles. But this confluence of
government ponzi schemes, global recession, and extreme national debt. It
makes me nervous.
Regards,
Gene
From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim
White
Sent: Wednesday, December 10, 2008 11:19 AM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: Q Ratio
Signals Horrific Market Bottom
Before the trough in 2014, investors are likely to see a
so- called bear
> market rally for the next two years as central bank
actions delay the
> onset of deflation, Napier said.
This agrees with Harry Dent's projection of a high in mid
to late 2009 before the plunge. Armstrong calls for March 2009 for a
high.