Re: [RT] No comparison to the Great Depression, RealTraders Email List Archive

Interesting article. I get confused between the cross currents of ?if this happens then this happens.? One simple historical comment by Armstrong?s recent essay (?It?s Just Time? 10/8/08 and apparently authentic) is that the US history of not monetizing its debt as have virtually EVERY European country (most notably Germany in the ?30s), makes the USD the ONLY substantial safe haven. Therefore, regardless of the many factors that might otherwise affect the USD, there will continue to be ?the flight to safety? that supports the dollar. He sees, as many do, fewer dollars available for spending and more goods available. Deflation. And deflation is multiples worse in severity, from what I read, than inflation; no pricing power, no goods demand.

At some point, it is appealing to envision the US Treasury holding an auction and no one showing up. With US Treasuries rates still falling, it doesn?t appear that point is imminent.

Jim

From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com [mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Dan Harels
Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2008 7:17 PM
To: real traders
Subject: RE: [RT] No comparison to the Great Depression

This commentary on reuters is interesting relative to the current account deficit, the capital account and the value of the dollar.

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/12/02/dollar-demise-much-exaggerated/

Dan

To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
From: jrosscpa@xxxxnet
Date: Tue, 2 Dec 2008 11:39:57 -0500
Subject: [RT] No comparison to the Great Depression

I think his words are a tad premature and maybe betrays his own fear:

**Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday the current economic
situation bears "no comparison" to the much deeper crisis of the 1930s Great
Depression.
"Well, you hear a lot of loose talk, but let me just ... say, as a scholar
of the Great Depression -- and I've written books about the Depression and
been very interested in this since I was in graduate school, there's no
comparison," Bernanke said in a question period after an address in Austin,
Texas.

Bernanke cited "an order-of-magnitude difference" in the current situation
compared to the 1930s.

"During the 1930s, there was a worldwide depression that lasted for about 12
years and was only ended by a world war," he said.

"During that time, the unemployment rate went to 25 percent, at least, based
on the data that we have. The real GDP (gross domestic product) fell by
one-third. About a third of all of the banks failed. The stock market fell
90 percent."

Bernanke said the situation at that time represented "very difficult
circumstances," because "we didn't have the social safety net that we have
today. So let's put that out of our minds; there's no -- there's comparison
in terms of severity."**

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081201213246.v50zx9ik&show_article=1

Well, Ben, this bear market is only 1 year along (Prechter would say 7 years
along) and has vaporized 50% of the market's value. More market value has
been vaporized in the first 12 months of this bear than was lost in
1929-1931.... IN LESS TIME. No bear market has seen the Dow lose as much
market value in percentage and real terms OTHER THAN the Great Depression.
None. As I recollect, Lehman survived the Great Depression; not so this
time and countless others effectively would have folded had it not been for
the bailout. Granted, the Great Depression saw 88% high to low in the Dow,
but this one ain't over by a long shot. Or, maybe you're declaring "Mission
Accomplished" already. I believe this first 12 months is just an early
warning signal this bear will be BIGGER than 1929-37. The fat lady hasn't
started to warm up as yet. And when she does begin singing it will be the
Carpenters "We've Only Just Begun." JMHO.