Ben,
Being
especially attuned to money flow and volume flow, I ordinarily would agree
with your remark, but I have a rule: be more guarded about normal trading
interpretation for the day before and the day after a holiday. I also include
the 3-4 days before year-end, when volume plummets. These are atypical days in
most cases and urge an atypical response. A short trade now may produce
precisely what you are suggesting, but I tend to think that the probabilities
of the outcome are different from normal market days, and EWT is about the
probabilities of wave structures as much as
anything.
Bruce
was trying to take me to task a while back for using the phrase, ?it will
become clear,? and broadly I accept what I think was his point, which was my
remark may have denoted too much certainty to suit him. But there are times
when I think that things are very clear and I act accordingly (but always with
circumspection, though with varying degrees of aggressiveness). It also
should be obvious that the market is under no obligation to do what I think it
will. Just because I think that what will happen is clear to me does not mean
that the market will clearly do with I think.
I went
long on Nov 21st, but I am not bullish about the market. I am
trying to choose the moment when I outright reverse my position back to the
short side. Price targets of 1135 and 1158 have been mentioned recently, but
those are higher than I am expecting the market to
rally.
My
larger perspective is that while I went long at the 1998 bottom and again at
the 2002 bottom, I do not think that the November 2008 reversal is the bottom
of this bear market. Personally I think there is a better bottom next year for
getting long for a more sustained rally. However, I was a lot more ?certain?
about going long in 1998 and 2002 than now. I liked the probabilities then for
going long when many of my peers were looking for much lower prices, but in
this current market I am more anxious about going long in an unguarded way
(more reluctant to push all my money into the pot on the long side). The
entire world economy is caving in, in my opinion, and this is the first time
in my lifetime that I have come to that conclusion. I went long in 1998
because I thought the American economy would save the global financial system
from collapse, and I thought the 2002 decline was heavily influenced by one
important sector?s failing (tech), but I don?t have that same perspective this
time around. Now, when I page through the charts for important sectors, there
is a lot of trouble out there, and there a lot of things that I favor as
investment categories that are getting a severe drubbing, and there are very
few if any safe havens at the moment. Even cash (money market funds) are at
risk in this cycle.
Joe
From:
TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ben
Sent: Friday, November 28, 2008 11:21
AM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Cc:
TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [TimeandCycles] Stocks to lead
NEW BULL ?
all
going up with decreasing volume
Sent:
Friday, November 28, 2008 2:17 PM
As
goes GS goes the market ?
And
maybe another Stock of the year ?
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