**
The only thing that says the rally shouldn't come is hedge fund
redemptions. **
How
about the endless GM debate? Last time Congress debated the future of
Paulson’s plan, how many points were lost?
How
about the grand consensus of Ewers is that the market is, at a minimum, in the
throes of a minor wave 5 of an intermediate wave 3 of primary wave a of cycle
wave c of a cycle level bear market? Oops, racket that all up one level
if this is a super cycle bear. Oops, racket it up one more degree if this
is the grand super cycle level.
How
about cyclists and Golden Section Phi date watchers finding cycle bottoms and
phi mate dates on Nov 19/20?
How
about the latent effects of tax selling season (Nov to second week in December)
to the 2nd power due to the fear of a doubling of the cap gains
rate?
Other
than max pain, I can’t find anything to support a rally for Monday.
Maybe some indicators are oversold, but they’re supposed to be oversold after
months of bear and in anticipation of the completion of wave 5 and entrance
into a major bear rally.
I’m
apprehensive about Max Pain, but the statistics hardly bear out more than a
modest recurrent bias. I suspect the major players are able to influence
the markets but I also suspect they do it when there’s opportunity, not
at will. For example, take the last 3 historic monster bear market (Sept
19, Oct 13, Nov 4, and last week) rallies we’ve had. Except
for Nov 4 which was a multi day rally, they occurred Thursday or Friday.
Why, the avalanche of buying on Thurs or Fri? The great supply of
institutional selling and fund redemption selling typically mounts up over
weekends and is exhausted by Thursday. Hence, the lowest volume days
provide the best opportunity for a small group to move the market.
If
this is the greatest bear market in history (Greenspan said this is a ‘100
year event’ and 1929 was within the hundred years), it deserves the
greatest one-day collapse in history. Friday capped a major failure of
the bulls, one which I suspect anyone long this weekend fears the Monday
open. I would. Maybe that greatest collapse begins Monday. My
thoughts are hard down into Wednesday…..possibly harder than anyone can
possibly imagine. That decline completes wave 5 at a high degree of trend
leading to a multi week bear market rally. Thereafter, the bear resumes
in the great and fabled c of C.
Good
luck, Jim
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ira
Sent: Saturday, November 15, 2008 5:26 PM
To: Undisclosed-Recipient:;
Subject: [RT] this coming week
I
have been looking at various stock and index max-pain areas. Here is
something to think about. If we don't get a massive rally in the coming
week, before expiration, then on Monday and Tuesday of next week there will be
tons of stock for sale after the puts are exercised on Saturday.
The
only thing that says the rally shouldn't come is hedge fund redemptions.
It is my understanding that some funds will have to liquidate up to 60% of
their existing portfolios in order to meet redemption requests. Will
there be another round of hedge funds going out of business?
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