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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2008 10:32 AM
Subject: TTT Some Real Technical Levels Here !
Looks like 6600 is next stop
/
This Multi Asset Technical Commentary
includes analysis and charts on the S&P, the DXY, EUR/USD and
EUR/GBP
2008 Mantra (January
2nd) - Maintain a near term, opportunistic, "hit and run" trading modus
operandi, as 'the only certainty is uncertainty'.
S&P (Society's
Mood Barometer) Medium to Longer Term (CASH
898.95) The underlying longer term bear market remains
intact and in force (12+
months). The Long Term Reassessment
Level to the underlying long-term bearish trend remains at *1200* / *1257*
(lowered from 1313.15 from 1350, from 1370,
from 1440, from 1525). Target for
Wave 'C' Unchanged (1.5 years): Retest
/ break the new millenniums' low at 768.63 (registered October 2002) with
downside attractions beyond 768.63 located at 720 / 710 followed by the 660+-
area. Under the still intact "preferred" wave count,
Wave 3 of Wave C remains incomplete at the October 10th low of
839.80 (off the mid May Wave 2 peak at 1440.24).
F.Y.I. - Wave C typically does not exceed 1.618% x
Wave A > 1552.87-768.63 = 1268.90. 1576.19?1268.90 = 307.19.
S&P
Micro to Near Term (CASH 898.95 SPZ 891.50) Off -12% from
last week's high, -8% from Monday's high, S&P's have traded into the
proposed 'loose' (not fine-tuned) Wave 'd' target area at 895 / 865,
trading to 883 yesterday. It's important to keep in mind that
S&P's have treaded water for approximately one-month now, eliminating one of
the three valid / favored corrective patterns in the process. Two
corrective wave patterns remain in play. Both
more immediately bearish counts are negated above 1008 (above exposes upside attractions at 1055 / 1065 and 1100 /
1110. Both Wave counts suggest S&P's should not
carry back above 960 / 980 (see November
7th below). The Contracting Triangle pattern, now widely
monitored, places the S&P in the latter stages of Wave 'd' or in the early stages of Wave 'e', the final leg of the triangle
(precedes "post triangle thrust"). IF the triangle is
in play, Wave 'd' should hold the 965 / 950 area and must by rule hold
the Wave 'b' low at 825 (for SPZ8) BUT best to use CASH S&P 846.75,
the slightly higher secondary Wave 'b' low (839.80 is the actual CASH
S&P low, registered on October 10th, whereas SPZ8 registered its
825 low on Oct 14th). A direct break of CASH S&P 846.75 /
839.80 without a Wave 'e' pullback suggests the consolidation phase is over
(wave count in RED then activated)
with downside attractions then located at 810 / 800 (minor), *768.63*
("sub 768.63", the 2002 low, remains the long standing "bare minimum
objective for large degree Wave C), 720 /
710 and the 660+- area.
Nov 10th S&P Micro to Near
Term (CASH 930.99 SPZ8 961.50)
Bottom Line ? Friday's proposed range top
(proposed micro to near term resistance) at 970+-10 is now under test, seemingly
prompted by the latest stimulus package / bail-out du jour. PROVIDED the current November highs at 1007 / 1008 cap the
upside, the underlying bearish trend is expected to regain traction 'sooner
rather than later', leading to new lows (see Page 1 Medium to Longer
Term). ABOVE 1007 / 1008 delays the
downside, opens up a few Wave Principle based possibilities and exposes the
lower end of long standing Medium Term
Resistance at 1052 / 1102, specifically 1055 /
1065.
Nov 7th
S&P Micro to Near Term (CASH 904.88 SPZ8 913.90) -11% from
Tuesday's high. See below ? T.A.G. gives the
Contracting Triangle interpretation the edge (further sideways then
lower), PROVIDED the secondary cash low at 845.27 contains weakness, otherwise
the more directly bearish wave counted will be moved to "preferred"
status. IF so, S&P should generally thrash about in a general range
between 855+-10 and 970+-10 to finish off the final legs of the proposed
triangle, before heading south. The 960 / 980 zone should provide resistance to
either Wave 'b' of 'd' and / or Wave 'e', the final leg of the proposed
triangle. Above 1008 NEGATES triangle count exposing
medium term resistance at 1052 / 1102.
Nov 5th S&P Micro to Near Term
(CASH 1005.75 / SPZ8 996.10)
Yesterday's CASH S&P high at 1007.51 may represent the high of Wave
'c', under the Contracting Triangle
interpretation (see recent analysis below). IF so, weakness below the 970+- area
suggests a near term high is in place (a close today below CASH 958.82, SPZ8
below 964.10 leaves "outside day reversal" patterns in the dailies, signs of
near term exhaustion in the conventional charting world). Price action beyond
yesterday's highs suggests the Corrective Flat pattern is likely in force,
exposing long standing initial medium term resistance
at 1052 / 1102 (interim minor resistance at the 1025+- area).
Here's a
look at the last year of the CASH S&P and the "preferred" bearish wave
count
Big Picture - Getting closer to the
long standing "bare minimum" downside target which continues to call for a Wave C decline that should "meet and or exceed
Wave A" (= 2002 low of 768.63). Wave C
should unfold in five waves off last years 1576.09 high. Unfortunately,
T.A.G. continues to view Wave 3 as incomplete
at the October 10th CASH S&P low at 839.80. Looking ahead ? Once
Wave 3 is complete, Wave 4 should offer a multi-month consolidation
phase. T.A.G. envisions a spring / summer 2009 range (to be fine-tuned)
between 600+-50 and 1050+-50 (to be fine-tuned) before Wave 5 takes the
S&P lower to complete the Expanding Flat pattern that began in Q1 2000
:-(
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Database: 270.9.2/1783 - Release Date: 11/12/2008 10:01 AM
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