Using a Maximum Entropy approach to
determining the cycles
in the DOW from 1920 till now
indicates that a 34.3 year and
an 8.3 year cycle are more
prominant than the 15.8 year.
With the indicated 3 cycles I use a
"strategy" which I wrote to
obtain the most profitable alignment
of the phases of these 3
cycles combined (see
red/blue/red/... curve). The "profit"
(DOW points) going
long when plot is blue and short when plot
is red if almost 20,000 points
seeming to point out that trading
the cycles would be slightly better
than buy and hold.
Clyde
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
= = = = = = = =
Clyde
Lee
SYTECH Corporation
7910
Westglen
Phone: 713.783.9540
Suite
105
Fax: 713.783.1092
Houston, TX 77063 www.theswingmachine.com
= =
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
This e-mail and any
attachments may contain confidential and
privileged information. If you are
not the intended recipient,
please notify the sender immediately by return
e-mail, delete this
e-mail and destroy any copies. Any dissemination or use
of this
information by a person other than the intended recipient
is
unauthorized and may be illegal.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, November 09, 2008 3:34
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Market status
To me the most dominant cycle in the market via the Dow is 16
years (see attached chart).
As to impulse dates, my analysis
all depends upon which index one chooses. For the Russell 2000 and
NYSE I get a 11/13 impulse date; for the Dow, a 11/14 impulse date; for the
NASDAQ a 11/17 impulse date; and for the S&P I really get no outstanding
date. Since 11/14 is the middle date I would guess that either the
13th or 14th to be a intermediate top or bottom and either the 14th or 17th
to be either the start of a leg up or down.
