Re: [RT] sp500 - Historical Perspective

[Jeff Redcay <jredcay@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Thought I might add a little picture to Pete's 73-74  DJIA vs our current place.
I have  3 "crashes" lined up so a comparison can be looked at.  What I did was draw
3 monthly charts with vertical lines 1 and 2 years from the tops.  The horizontal lines are
8ths down from the respective tops.   The little squares are 1 year out from the highs
and their relationship to the 8ths down from the top.  My quick observations would be:
1929  is the king, 2 months from the top and 50% down from the high (talk about velocity).
1973 after 1 year was 25% from the top and looked to be consolidating. It then took almost
another year to reach the 50% mark.  And now we have our current contribution to turmoil.
1 year out from the top (monthly chart so that year isn't quite up yet) we are close to the
50% mark.  Velocity wise it looks like we are right between 1929 and 1973.  But we are much
further from what looks like the trend line (it really isn't a true trend line) than in 1973.
At any rate I guess its nice to be part of history, hopefully not the end of history!



Pete Lieber wrote:

Today's market is reminiscent of the 1973 -74 market plunge (see attached chart).  In 1973 the DJIA hit a high of 1053.21; in 74 it hit a low of 572.60 - a 44.6% drop.  Today low equals a 44.7% drop from the 2007 high.  In 1973 the SP500 hit a high of 121.27; in 74 it hit a low of 60.96 -a 49.7% drop.  Today low equals a 46.6% drop from the 2007 high.  However this time it feels worse, a lot worse.  In October 1929 the DJIA hit a high of 386.10 by November it hit a low of 195.35 - a 49.4% drop.  However from there it rebounded to 297.95 (April 1930).  >From April 1930 the market began its steady decline to its eventual low of 40.56 in July 1932.

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To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: chaze@xxxxxxxx
Date: Fri, 10 Oct 2008 07:24:39 -0500
Subject: Re: [RT] sp500

Hi Ben & Group-

I was wondering if I could get some type of a concensus
here?

Do you foresee a bounce from current levels? And, is this
the FINAL bottom, or
is there yet another leg down after a rally?

I am pretty clueless right now. I thought the price was
maybe right, but maybe
not the time? How about 777?

Thank you for any feedback.

Chas
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On Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:22:40 -0400
Ben <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet> wrote:
> down another 25 at night session!!
> Japanese insurance co in same shape as AIG
>
> Since 1894 we never had , 6 days in a raw ,with more
>than 2% correction ,or more!!!
> Ben
>
> you must realize oversold does not work here
> even my forecast was wrong for the week
> and only 1 component is os/ob
> even new hi in vix, new hi in p/c
> no indicator works
> its all about PRICE
> cycles has the best chance to work here

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