Very interesting
Youtube video, thanks. It looks to me like Prechter may have been dead
right looking for a 5th wave rally that began in August of 1982 in
the Dow. He got fooled when he thought the 1987 crash marked the end of
the entire move from 1932. It turns out that it?s much more likely that
the 1982 to 1987 move was just the first wave up in what he expected to be a 5
wave move to complete the larger 5 wave advance from 1932. The evidence is
strong: The 1982 to 1987 move in the Dow Industrials took 1273 trading
days (wave 1). The move from 10/10/2002 to 10/31/2007 also took 1273 days
(wave 5, which slightly failed in the Dow and S&P, but not the Nas.); waves
1 and 5 are often equal in time; in this case exact. The total time for the
entire bull market move in the Dow from August 12, 1982 to Oct 31, 2007 is 6364
trading days. Wave 1 took 1273, multiplying that by 5 we get 6365, one day
off. That also means that the distance between the 1987 high and the 2002
low is also the product of 3 times 1273 or 3819. The actual number is
3818. What?s also compelling is that the percentage increase from the 1932
Dow low to the 1982 Dow low, where Prechter believes the 5th wave
began, is almost identical to the percentage increase from the 1982 low to the
2007 high. In other words the 1982 low is the midpoint between the 1932
low and the 2007 high on a percentage/semi-log scale. How ironic it
would be if he were right. I?ve posted this before in a chart, but I
thought it useful to take another look.
In addition, the 10 day
OPEN TRIN dropped again today to .6827. I?ve run out of adjectives for
this one. Yes, markets have gotten this overbought during market
kickoffs. But they all had one thing in common; they were going
up.
Regards,
KWM
From:
TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Georg Mayer
Sent: Wednesday, September 24, 2008 5:18
PM
To:
timeandcycles@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [TimeandCycles] January 2008:
Bankers Preparing for Total Collapse