Re: [RT] Are we there yet?

["Ira" <mrira@xxxxxxxxx>]

We have not seen the end of this move down.  There are just to many factors that say no.  Yes these factors are all fundamental analysis .like the credit crunch, Freddie and Fannie, Lehman, the building sector and billions of dollars worth of derivatives that have still not been written off.  There is also inflation, deflation in housing, balance of payments, national debt and reduced buying power by the citizenry which will lead to lower profits in the future.  Here are a couple of charts of the Dow.  the monthly shows that we are still in a retracement of an up trend and that price can fall to a target price of 9677 if support at 10,821 is  broken.  Price would have to go through 12,577 to start a new move higher that would be of any consequence.  The daily chart shows that the short cycle price objective at 11556 is still acting a resistance to a move higher and that price earlier couldn't quite reach the longer cycle price objective at 11,958.  The first price objective for this move down on the daily chart is 10,708.  There is a short cycle support level at 11,203 that has a target price of 10828. 

 

So there is plenty of room in both directions for price to move within these parameters.  The volatility is working for traders and these violent bear market rallies are wonderful to trade. So good luck and good trading.

Ira
www.delta100.com

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Robert Arbuckle

To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 1:51 PM

Subject: [RT] Are we there yet?

I don't know about you folks but today looked a lot like capitulation to me.  They were throwing out the baby, the bathwater and the nanny during this session.  Stocks that had solid support structures blew though them.  Maybe it's just day one of capitulation to be followed by 4 months more of it but I do believe it was a capitulation day.

 

Bob

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