Re: [RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] The Great Bear has just begun

[rosow@xxxxxxx]

Let's see...................On 12/13/07 I said the following:

 

"PS - IMO, we've seen nothing yet! Wait until you see all those option ARM's implode! I'll be conservative and say that at least 75% of those loans were done because the "fake" payment was the only way many were able to get into a home (CA!!!). Fast forward 1-2 yrs later..............prices of homes down 10-20%, mortgage balance up 10-15% due to negative amortization, original loan was already @ a 90% LTV/CLTV and no material change in family income. As Phil Rizzuto used to say "Holy Cow"!!"

 

So to answer your question:

 

Now what banks did the most Option ARM loans:

 

IndyMac - 12/13 - 6.64 - Today - Gone

Countrywide - Today - You know the B of A story.

WAMU - 12/13 - 16.06 - Today - 4.87

Downey Savings - 12/13 - 32.98 - Today - 2.11

World (Wachovia) - 12/13 - 40.19 - Today - 17.11

BankUnited - 12/13 - 7.73 - Today - 1.27

 

Who didn't do ONE Option ARM loan:

 

Chase - 12/13 - 45.76 - Today - 40.14

Wells Fargo - 12/13 - 30.56 - Today - 30.18

B of A (prior to Countrywide buyout) - 12/13 - 43.05 - Today - 32.62

 

I'd say Downey Savings and BankUnited will be next to go. WAMU and Wachovia are just to big! Though WAMU's price is pretty telling!

 

My money's on Chase!! HELOC's are their main thorn right now.

 

Not TA but in my line of work : >)

 

Lenny 

 

 

 

 

In a message dated 8/4/2008 7:18:27 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, caroline@xxxxxxxxxxx writes:

The important question of course being: How do we trade it?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
1a. Re: Re[2]: [RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] The Great Bear has just begun
     Posted by: "rosow@xxxxxxx" rosow@xxxxxxx lbrosow
     Date: Sun Aug 3, 2008 6:06 pm ((PDT))

Go back in the archives and see what I said regarding CA and all their
option ARM loans. This has only just begun for that State. I said it 
before and
I'll say it again. "holy cow" for that State!!

Lenny


In a message dated 8/3/2008 10:20:09 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
Code2@xxxxxxx writes:

>  2.  The # of mortgages in california that are more than 30 days
>  behind in payments is 4%.  Not the 21% you seem to have made up  out
> of thin air (just what source do you claim to cite for  that
> anyway?).  That 4% is about 4 times "normal" but even that  is more
> than the number in actual foreclosure.

That figure  sound more accurate.  A RealtyTrac article July 25 said
that  foreclosure proceedings (the next step after default) commenced
on one in  every 65 households in California during the second quarter.
That's 1.5%,  but remember that that's just foreclosures commenced
during April to  June.

The whole article is at
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=4891&accnt=64847




------------------------------------

Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/

<*> Your email settings:
    Individual Email | Traditional

<*> To change settings online go to:
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/join
    (Yahoo! ID required)

<*> To change settings via email:
    mailto:realtraders-digest@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    mailto:realtraders-fullfeatured@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
    realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
    http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/

---

Looking for a car that's sporty, fun and fits in your budget? Read reviews on AOL Autos.

__._,_.___

Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch to Fully Featured
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe

__,_._,___