I do not have anything too constructive to add at the moment, but I'll try
and help stir the pot to get things flowing.
The first chart shows that the SP has held a good 10 bar high low
sequence since the low in March. However, it has gone astray since the 6/25
high.
I have broken the previous high of 5/19 and recent low into 8ths
for upside price target objectives. Looking at the MACD oscillator
could suggest we are looking at a move up for some period of time.
We have already hit the 25% retracement level off the low. The question now
is do we continue higher to the 37.5% retracement area or do we drop back
down to the 12.5% retracement area.
The second chart I put together back in the beginning of March
projecting the market was about to move up due to bullish divergence that
was present and the 70 bar cycle which was just beginning. I drew the line
projecting a 5/28 high at the 50% retracement level around 1416. The heavy
green line was the buy price. At that time I also projected a possible
significant low around 7/1 due to the confluence of cycles there.
This chart has not been modified in any way since then except for the 8ths
grid I applied to show why I picked th1416 retracement level at that time, and
the date of 5/28 was an expected Delta high.
Though its a weekly chart, it illustrates the 35, 70 &
105 bar daily cycles that were in play and have remained
so. Due to the strength of the move down from 5/19, we have moved past
the projected static cycle low of 6/27, and I project we will make another
low around the 8/22 time frame. That time frame should also tell whether these
cycles are intact for the most part or have shifted somewhat.
Due to these all these cycles now, we are due for a bounce higher
which we have gotten to some degree, but whether it continues or not remains to
be seen.
As for tomorrow, I have no idea.
Lee
In a message dated 7/21/2008 6:43:20 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
Let's see who has the best guess for the close tomorrow.
My best guess for the DOW is 11,240
For the S&P: 1248
Bob
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