RE: [RT] Fw: FW: *****SPAM***** Fw: Fw:], RealTraders Email List Archive

Hey Pete,

Can you explain to me then please what the price of a sandwich at Woolworths in 1950 has to do with whether I buy or sell the Dow, or whether I buy or sell Crude?

Yes, prices have gone up, but price were higher in March 2003 just before the Dow exploded too, just as they were higher when the market topped, and I’m quite sure prices are higher now than when the market peaked last year. So what?? To be honest, it actually takes people attention away from what is really important. The doomers and gloomers used to abound back in the 80’s, quoting us endless economic statistics of how bad things were. Of course they all got it completely wrong, and the markets exploded higher, even when those stats they would quote often got worse. So unless your an extremely experienced trader, such as Ira would be I assume, who has been through all these different cycles, you would know that when it comes to trading, the big picture statistics are often not only completely useless, but extremely misleading. What’s even more ironic is that the trading model Ira uses is ultra short term, attempting to keep his win% extremely high, as clearly he does not like the stress of trading. Which is fine. Some of us like to take long term position with really high R’s, and some like to have constant validation by taking very small profits and getting a high win %.

Knowing the past is important. You are right there. But we use the past as a tool to teach us how things work, so that we can apply that knowledge to today’s markets. Knowing that a large increase in the money supply will inflate prices is a fair assumption to make. But which markets? Well, an experienced technician doesn’t care...he will let the markets tell him which ones are going up and which are not. Just as Ira’s model does. The question is, are you trading the market or the money supply? Do we rush out and buy a heap of market because we find the M3 is growing at 16%pa? That would be sheer insanity to do so. There’s the question of timing of entries, controlling trade risk, portfolio risk, how long do you intend to hold, what will cause you to get out? Will you wait until you see the price of a sandwich go down at Woolworths as a rule to exit all long positions? Hmmm..maybe that’s a good trade. If we bought the Dow the first time the price of a sandwich at Woolworths went up then we would be looking pretty good right now. I dare say I will probably be dead before I get a sell signal. LOL Where’s the fun in that though?

My point is, that in the end, all these economic statistics are generally only of academic interest and provide a very general guideline. Understanding the complexity of the economic system we live in, and how everything interacts, with almost an unlimited number of variables, is more complex than you can ever possibly imagine. A gentleman by the name of Martin Armstrong came closest to solving the intricate web, but unfortunately he now sits in jail as far as I am aware and his talents have been lost. If you wish to base your trades on economic statistics/trends, you are treading on EXTREMELY dangerous grounds. Just look at Crude this week. It has dropped $18 in just a week. That is $18,000 per contract!! If you are long through that, it better be because you bought crude a long time ago and your trading a long term trend. That sort of movement in a few days is simply unheard of, and yet prices of Sandwiches at Woolworth probably did not give you any warning sign. I dare say M3 is still rising, but we won’t know that till well after the event. Starting to get the picture now Pete of how absolutely irrelevant most of Ira’s posts are when he talks about how prices are higher now than when he was a boy?

Cheers,

Adrian

From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Peter Hallock
Sent: Sunday, 20 July 2008 12:58 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: FW: *****SPAM***** Fw: Fw:]

Ira's comments have EVERYTHING to do with the big trading picture. Knowing the past and seeing the applicabily to the present is crucial to any traders success.

Trading in the RIGHT markets NOW will pay big dividends. The government's "outrageous printing of money" will cause certain markets to explode (some up, some down). Hint: It has already begun.

If you don't know what those markets are, try being nice to Ira... maybe he'll tell you. In the meantime, you've got a delete button... use it.

Pete Hallock

----- Original Message -----

From: hostmaster

To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Saturday, July 19, 2008 10:17 PM

Subject: re: [RT] Fw: FW: *****SPAM***** Fw: Fw:]

I am sorry but I really must complain to the moderator about this

There is absolutely nothing about trading or of any value for trading in this crap. It appears to be a deliberate attempt to abuse the subscribers of this list and to do so in a way calculated to be an open challange to the subscribers and moderator of this list. Even the topic screams that it is deliberate spam. The attachment triggers both my anti-virii and firewall so I suspect it is malicious also.

I am amazed and insulted that any adult would abuse us in this way.

Boater805

#### "Ira" <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote >>>>> .........................

Sent: Saturday, July 19, 2008 2:48 PM
Subject: [Fwd: FW: *****SPAM***** Fw: Fw:]

I Started college in the spring of 1950. I got $110 a month from the GI bill and had no problem making ends meet with rent, food (hashed at a sorority), gas, a car and going out on dates. If you don't believe what inflation can do compare some of these prices from a real menu of the 1950s. The Korean and Vietnam wars started the escalation and now Iraq and Afghanistan will start the next set of inflation numbers. The government hasn't helped with its policies as to the financial markets, interest rates and the outrageous printing of money. It will be interesting to see what happens next. It ain't going to be pretty.

Ira

If any of you have doubt about what we paid for a coke and a sandwich at Woolworths in the 1950's, here's proof of the era we lived........and it was a GREAT ERA to live ...

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