[RT] Hope History doesn't Repeat

[Pete Lieber <plieber@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The present day market feels a lot like the market from 1966 to 1982 (yes, I was trading back then).  Early in President Kennedy's administration tax rates were cut including an onerous capital gains rate and the market responded.  Those were called the 'Go-Go' years and in 1966 the DJIA first hit (intraday) 1000.  Over the next 16 years the market bounced off the 1000 level resistance.  In 1982, it finally broke that resistance and took off.  In the first attached chart (DJ1960's & 1990's) I took the DJIA from the early 1960's to 1982 and superimposed upon it the DJIA from the late 1990's to present.  The blue line represents the DJIA from October 1962 to October 1982 and the red line represents the DJIA from March 1997 to present.  If we repeat the past, then we might expect 8 more years of sideways movement in the market.

In the second chart I dusted off an old Nikkei / Nasdaq comparison chart and brought it up to date.  While the two indices tracked nearly perfectly for a while, I stopped when they started to diverge.  However I wanted to again look at the two because Japan's downfall was a direct result of their over-inflated real estate market.  In this chart the blue line represents the Nikkei 225 index from September 1988 to January 2006 and the red line represents the NASDAQ from December 1998 to present. 

Is this market headed towards a 1973 - 1974 meltdown when the market lost over 40% of it value (from DJIA 1067 to DJIA 573)?  In 1973 we also had dramatically rising crude oil prices.


__._,_.___

Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch to Fully Featured
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe

__,_._,___

Attachment: DJ1960's & 1990's copy.gif
Description: GIF image

Attachment: Nikkei Nasdaq 1988 - 2008.gif
Description: GIF image