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I don't know the answer to this
line of reasoning, but the Masters testimony implied that Sovereign Wealth
Funds, etc., were buying commodity futures unlike any situation in the
past. Now if the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund decided to diversify 20%
of its assets into oil futures, and the fund is worth 1.3 trillion US
Dollars, couldn't this explain the rise in the price of oil -- hoarding or no
hoarding, rolling to the next month or not rolling? And would there be any
reason for the Chinese to close their positions as long as the dollar was
depreciating?
JerryR
----- Original Message
-----
Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2008 3:31
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] All short term
projections are failing in CL
Rolling to next month
is not taking delivery, how can anyone be hoarding something they don't
have. Future price is speculated, but when the front month closes it's
no longer a speculation but a commodity with a value determined by supply and
demand. Or used to be, they say that's
changed?
Mike-pdt
At 11:26 AM 5/24/2008, you wrote:
What about just rolling to the next month?
Ira
www.delta100.com
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: mdm27613
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2008 7:19 AM
- Subject: Re: [RT] All short term projections are failing in
CL
- I was looking for that, trying to figure out how futures can
- determine supply and demand. Speculation controls a futures price,
- but come expiration the position must be closed, offset, or there's a
- train load of commodity to sell or physically store.
- This morning's John Mauldin continues the topic.
- http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo052308.pdf
- Mike-pdt
- --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"fxapprentice" <fxapprentice@xxx>
- wrote:
- >
- > Pretty interesting reading:
- > http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf
- >
- > From fundamental standpoint, if US will impose restrictive
- legislation
- > in this field, we'll see another bubble explosion.
- >
- > Gold & silver is down from all time highs, EUR is making
second
- top,
- > agriculturals retreated. Oil is the next ? Maybe after CL will
get
- to
- > 147-150.
- >
- > Michael.
- >
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