[RT] m2 money supply

[Ben <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Money supply (M2)

The money supply chart below was provided by Gordon Harms.

Money supply is growing at the fastest rate in years.

 

April

Over all years the OTC has been up 69% of the time in April.  By that measure April is the best month of the year.  The average gain of 1.5% puts it in a 3 way tie for 2^nd with November and December and following the average 3.2% gain of January.

 

The record has not been as good during the 4^th year of the Presidential Cycle.  During the 4^th year of the Presidential Cycle April has been up 55% of the time putting it in 8^th place out of the 12 months while the average 1.2% gain puts it in 5^th place by that measure.

 

The average month has 21 trading days.

The charts below show the average daily performance for the index during the month of April over all years in blue (OTC) and red (SPX) and during the 4^th year of the Presidential Cycle in green.

 

The charts are calculated by averaging the daily percentage change for each of the 1^st 11 days of the month and each of the last 10 days.  When there are more than 21 trading days some days in the middle have been left out and when there have been less than 21 trading days some days in the middle have been counted twice.  A dashed vertical line has been drawn after the 1^st trading day and at 5 trading day intervals.  A solid vertical line has been drawn on the 11^th trading day, the dividing point.

 

Over all years since 1928 the SPX has been up 58% of the time in April.  By that measure it is tied with July as the 6^th best month of the year.  The average gain of 1.1% puts it in a tie for 3rd with July and following January with an average gain of 1.4% and December at 1.3%.

 

Like the OTC, the record has not been as good during the 4^th year of the Presidential Cycle.  During the 4^th year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 50% of the time putting it in a tie for last place with July.  The average loss of 1.0% puts it at 11^th place above May at -1.4%.  The average loss was helped considerably by an 18.8% loss in 1932 and a 9.3% loss in 1936.

 

 

Conclusion

The rapid decline in new lows suggest that risk is receding.

I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday April 4 than they were on Friday March 28.

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