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We are out of office today,
but wanted to put this brief update for those watching the S&P--
Shown below is the S&P 2 Minute chart through 10AM Friday. Note the
steeply decelerating downtrend line. In my view, if the S&P can move
back above this trendline later on today, which would equate to a move
approximately back above 1330, the market will have concluded its panic
low and should start a rally back toward 1400.
On the next page, I show at
the top, my Super Hourly RSI, which is an extreme OB/OS Indicator. Over
the last two hours, it actually dipped below its lower oversold line.
Going back over the last few years, shown in follow on charts, that has
been rare to hit the lower line, even in panic declines seen in 2006 and
2007. We are now, where we were when the first Sub Prime low was seen in
mid-Feb 2007. Other then that, it has been years since 2001, and 2002
that we have seen these kinds of oversold
values.
Today
(above)
The August 2007 Panic
decline.
Daily DJIA OB-OS Oscillator
at ?180 yesterday, probably near ?210 today, most of the time, you get a
healthy bounce off of these readings, even in a Bear Market. Watch 1330
closely, if the S&P can climb back above that level, a rally will
probably take hold.
Frank |
