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A statistical analysis of cycle lengths that exist in monthly
Dow time series shows a 41 and 88 month primary cycles.
In the attached we have shown two approaches to estimating
what will be the path of prices over the next few years.
Approach 1 is simple "spectral" analysis and a projection
based on the 41 and 88 month cycles.
Approach 2 is the more complex SwingMachine approach
using a pivot search of 41 bars and showing two paths of
prices that might be possible.
THIS IS VERY LONG-TERM STUFF ! ! !
Clyde
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- Clyde
Lee
phone: 713.783.9540 SYTECH Corporation 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Houston, TX 77063 fax:
713.783.1092 WebSite: www.theswingmachine.com- - - - - -
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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2008 09:37
AM
Subject: [Time-Price-Research-I] SPX Time
Geometry
The 4th chart here shows temporal geometry since
2002.
http://ajaskey.wso.net/investor/spx_cycles.htm
The
SPX was pretty easy pretty easy to call in 2007 in the long term. The
shorter term charts work well if they are watched regularly. The
following pattern after at top or bottom is not predictable, but the chart can
be used for trading after 25% of the time of the previous move has
elapsed. The 50% time / 50% price point is more often than not hit and
is tradeable. If it is not hit, then that information shows the
strength of trend going forward.
Andy
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