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RE: [RT] GLDN tender offered at 105 but price dropping at 99.50 !



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I have watched a number of buyout arb spreads widen on seemingly solid, uncontested deals, some significantly. Generally, I think there is increasing uncertainty in the markets regarding financing and asset values. When doing these arb plays one should take a look at the charts and see where the stock(s) might go if the deal falls apart, then plan accordingly. Good, recent example is Meyers Industries (MEY).
 
Earl


From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Carltrek Vanhaes
Sent: Friday, December 28, 2007 5:06 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] GLDN tender offered at 105 but price dropping at 99.50 !

Gents,

I rarely asked for advice but this time am a bit confused and feel
stuck in an option position turning odd:
On Dec 21 after seession close there was an official annoucement that
GLDN (Gold Telecom) would be purchased by VimpelCom at a price of
$105. Tender to commence on Jan18 or before. At the time price was at
103 and this is why I decided to purchase the stock (1000 GLDN) while
at the same time selling 10 PUT Jan100 and 10 CALL Jan105. My
expectations was that the stock would quickly jump to 105 and stay
there. So I would benefit from the stock bought at 103 ($ 2,000) and
wait for the expiration of both PUT and CALL on Jan18 which would
normally expire valueless.
I got 0.65 for the PUT and 0.50 for the CALL on Dec 24 and bought the
stock 102.35.
But the problem is that the stock is since then dropping steadily and
now at 99.35!!
How is that possible as the stock has been offered $105 a share ??
Are some of you guys familiar with this situation? What would be your
best advice here? I feel like I want to close out everything now but
not sure this is the wisest thing to do.

Thanks by all means.

Carl

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