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Great post .. thank you Gene
At 01:06 PM 12/20/2007, you wrote:
Jim,
I think that it?s easy to fall into this black pit of worries. I?m sure
we can all recall from our history books times when events like those you
listed have previously occurred, or came perilously close to occurring.
But I find I have to be careful about not assuming that just
because a writer attempts to link all the ?Black Swans? together into one
great conflagration, that history can or will actually unfold in this
way. Like the markets, there are forces that tend to ?scatter? these
collections of specific sub-events, thereby preventing the worst
scenarios based on a sum of all fears. When we look at events like 9/11,
it reminds me that when a crisis hits, we are capable of galvanizing and
doing something about it. The bigger the crisis, the more focused people
become, the more aligned with a solution that helps to stop these events
from happening again. While it can be argued whether these solutions
(whether eavesdropping on every email out there, or interning all
Japanese/Americans) are ?good? or ?evil?, I believe that the real point
is that, when push comes to shove, something tends to get done, and in a
representative democracy like ours, end-of-society crises tend to be
averted, even if imperfectly. I can see a future (perhaps the next
generation) when kids not unlike ourselves in the 60?s said ?We?re not
going to take it?? Between that and the media, and the internet,
it?s hard (but I won?t rule out impossible) to imagine ourselves as a
society being ?duped? into something too very far from what we know to be
right. It?s my position that since the days of Kennedy?s ?Camelot?, what
we?ve lost is innocence, not intelligence, and that?s a good thing.
The fact that you posted your thoughts is in itself proof of the
self-corrective nature of what I?m saying.
Happy Holidays to you all as well.
Gene Pope
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[
mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Jim
White
Sent: Thursday, December 20, 2007 12:23 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] The Fourth Turning
The scenarios below were published in 1997 in the
book "The Fourth Turning - An American Prophecy". While the
book offers these as only examples of possibilities leading to the
unraveling of the social fabric, it is clear from the remarkable
similarity with current events that we are truly in The Fourth Turning as
forecast by the book. I urge all of you to read this book and understand
the potential impact of these tumultuous times on our personal welfare.
You might also investigate the work of Harry S. Dent
(www.HSDent.com) on demographic
projections and their economic impact.
Most of us have a very narrow view of our environment and seldom step
back to try to see the broader picture. These publications provide us
with a broader view.
SCENARIOS FOR CRISIS:
(1) "Beset by a fiscal crisis, a state lays
claim to its residents' federal tax monies. Declaring this an act of
session. the president obtains a federal injunction. The governor refuses
to back down. Federal marshals enforce the court order. Similar tax
rebellions soaring up in other states. Treasury bill auctions are
suspended. Militia violence breaks out. Cyberterrorists destroy IRS
databases. U.S. special forces are put on alert. Demands issue for a new
Constitutional Convention"
(2) "A global terrorist group blows up an
aircraft and announces it possess portable nuclear weapons. The United
States and its allies launch a preemptive strike. The terrorists threaten
to retaliate against an American city. Congress declares war and
authorizes unlimited house-to-house searches. Opponents charge that the
president concocted the emergency for political purposes. A nationwide
strike is declared. Foreign capital flees the U.S."
(3) "An impasse over the
federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both
refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The
president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority.
Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social
Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default
looms. Wall street panics."
(4) "The Center for Disease Control and
Prevention announces the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease
reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts a
mandatory quarantine measures. The president orders the National Guard to
throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist.
Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the president to
declare martial law."
(5) "Growing anarchy throughout the former
Soviet republics prompts Russia to conduct training exercises around its
borders. Lithuania erupts in civil war. Negotiations break down. UP.SO
diplomats are captured and publicly taunted. The president airlifts
troops to rescue them and orders ships into the Black Sea. Iran declares
its alliance with Russia. Gold and oil prices soar. Congress debates
restoring the draft."
I wish each and everyone of you a happy holiday and
prosperous New Year.
Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading Co.
PivotTrader.com
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