Re: RE: [RT] Trading Diary: False Breaks Warn Of A Market Top, RealTraders Email List Archive

Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Pope
Date: Monday, December 10, 2007 8:19 am
Subject: RE: [RT] Trading Diary: False Breaks Warn Of A Market Top
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

> Hello All,
>
>
>
> For what it's worth, I just came back from my yearly "solo week"
> in Florida,
> Singer Island to be exact. I like to just go and detox, hang out
> at local
> establishments, stick my feet in the ocean and clear my mind,
> while staying
> as far away from the upper end hang outs as possible. My
> observations were a
> little disquieting and I'd like to share them with you.
>
>
>
> The taverns I like to hang out in have always been among the
> most popular,
> usually crowded to capacity on any weekend night, including
> Sunday, and
> still at least half-full on a Wednesday. One of them happens to
> be have one
> of the greatest Karaoke stages I've ever seen. Very elaborate
> stage with
> very high-end speakers and mics and even lighting. Very popular
> DJ, people
> coming from 100 miles away to get there. This is very a very
> locals oriented
> place. I've been going there now every year at the same time
> since 1999.
>
>
>
> Last year, it started to change, fewer people, but still a good
> time. But
> this year, I was in total shock at what I saw. I came in first
> on a
> Wednesday, and Mel, the DJ I've known for years, tells me "Gene,
> I think I
> gotta hang it up soon. There's no traffic anymore. My nightly
> fees are being
> cut. They've cut out Sundays and it looks like Wednesday is
> going too. I
> can't live like this. " He was right about the traffic. The
> place was like
> an empty bowling alley. I had to wait an hour past the normal
> start time
> just to get one more singer in the joint.
>
>
>
> Then on Friday night, I returned and it was the same thing,
> perhaps 10% of
> the normal crowd size for a Friday. Then came Saturday. I go to
> pull into
> the parking lot at the regular time, and there were no cars
> around AT ALL
> except the employees. I was stunned. I went in, and I've never
> seen so few
> people in that bar, ever, on any night, in all these years. It
> was worse
> than the previous Wednesday, and you never see that. The
> jukebox, which is
> usually cranking until the Karaoke starts, was silent. The
> employees and
> bartenders looks rattled and scared, roaming around aimlessly.
>
>
>
> From my conversations with them, they told me the same story
> over and over.
> Nobody has any money to go out and have a good time anymore
> (remember, this
> is a very local joint, not some here today, gone tomorrow
> tourist hang out).
> Their customers all tell the same story, that gas is too
> expensive, food is
> too expensive, and their mortgages are swallowing up all their
> money. They
> can't afford to go out.
>
>
>
> This particular bar is also one of the rare ones in the area
> that closes at
> 5 AM, therefore, it becomes a bartenders bar after all the other
> placesclose up at 2 or 3 AM. They tell me that this crowd is
> gone as well. The
> other bartenders and waitress's business is so bad, they have no tips,
> therefore no money to use after quitting time. So this is not
> just the tale
> of some dump that fell under the radar. This IS the place to go
> around these
> parts. I think it's a hell of a barometer, one that is not being
> picked up
> on in the press.
>
>
>
> So what is this saying? If the majority of the populace cannot
> afford to go
> out for a good time anymore, and/or there's no tourists coming
> around, are
> we already in recession and why aren't we hearing more about
> this? Even 9/11
> or the hurricanes didn't affect business this much. What I saw
> was truly
> outside the bell curve. Where else is this happening? These
> people are truly
> frightened for their livelihoods.
>
>
>
> This may just be a localized phenom, but I wonder about that. To
> quote my
> friend Mel, "People I know, older couples up north tell me they
> can't afford
> to come down here anymore. They got too much to worry about back
> up north."
>
>
>
> One more Mel quote: "My friends that work at local Publix
> supermarkets say
> the average "ticket" per customer is way down, as if they're
> getting very
> selective in what they're buying."
>
>
>
> Just one man's observations. Anybody else out there have any anecdotal
> evidence?
>
>
> Gene
>
>