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Well, I don't know then Gene. I do know that businesses here are
having a hard time finding employees because the cost of living here is
so high and this especially includes housing. Of course, we are not
afloat in condo's people were flipping like they are on the Miami side
and our real estate has held up very well. The island I live on has
a large European population and most of the home owners have no mortgages
so that makes a difference as well. The island is at full build
out, meaning that we have no available building lots left and that also
supports existing home pricing. I suspect that the difference we
both see with our bar scenario is that in your case, you are talking
about waiters and bartenders etc., where I am talking about wealthy
islanders and I say that because the hospitality workers can not afford
the prices on the island so they go on to the main land for their fun
where they are closer to home and deal with affordable prices.
All best,
Bob
At 02:08 PM 12/10/2007, you wrote:
Good point Bob, but this place caters to a younger crowd, which is what
gets me worried. It could of course be a localized phenomenon, but Singer
Island is near Palm Beach and West Palm. Not exactly a lack of money
here, but we?re talking about a tavern not catered to by wealthy people,
or anywhere neat that. We?re talking very straight ahead blue collar
types, or young people just starting out careers. And I can assure you ,
I can tell the difference between a tourist who is ?lying? and a local.
The locals cheer if you sing country. The tourists cheer if you sing Bon
Jovi or more urban stuff. At any rate, the real point of my story was the
changes over time, not whether I have my demographics perfectly in
line.
Gene
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[
mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of BobsKC
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2007 1:45 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Trading Diary: False Breaks Warn Of A Market
Top
I don't know where Singer Island is
but I live on Sanibel Island and it is a very hot Florida
destination. I have noticed for years that the tourist season is
beginning later and lasting later than in the past. I went to my
favorite bar Friday night and it was packed with locals. This is
saying something in a community made up of mostly retired folks with an
average age of something around 70. Many, most, of these people no
longer drink due to doctor's advice and yet the popular local bar was
very busy. (Once season begins, most of the people in that bar will
be tourists and the locals stay home).
The other thing is that a large percentage of the population in Florida
are older people who may no longer drink at all and without the tourists,
few bars would survive here. (This is probably not true on Miami
Beach because it's a tourist stop year round).
Bottom line is that you may, in the past, have been seeing a lot of
tourist traffic who you assumed were locals and you may not have been
aware of the changing tourist arrival and departure times. If they
were truly locals, more of them than not have enough money that they
could care less about the cost of gasoline or interest rates because they
don't owe anyone, anything.
At least this is a possibility
Bob
At 08:18 AM 12/10/2007, you wrote:
Hello
All,
For what its worth, I just came back from my yearly solo weekin Florida,
Singer Island to be exact. I like to just go and detox, hang out at local
establishments, stick my feet in the ocean and clear my mind, while
staying as far away from the upper end hang outs as possible. My
observations were a little disquieting and Id like to share them with
you.
The taverns I like to hang out in have always been among the most
popular, usually crowded to capacity on any weekend night, including
Sunday, and still at least half-full on a Wednesday. One of them happens
to be have one of the greatest Karaoke stages Ive ever seen. Very
elaborate stage with very high-end speakers and mics and even lighting.
Very popular DJ, people coming from 100 miles away to get there. This is
very a very locals oriented place. Ive been going there now every year at
the same time since 1999.
Last year, it started to change, fewer people, but still a good time. But
this year, I was in total shock at what I saw. I came in first on a
Wednesday, and Mel, the DJ Ive known for years, tells me Gene, I think I
gotta hang it up soon. Theres no traffic anymore. My nightly fees are
being cut. Theyve cut out Sundays and it looks like Wednesday is going
too. I cant live like this. He was right about the traffic. The place was
like an empty bowling alley. I had to wait an hour past the normal start
time just to get one more singer in the joint.
Then on Friday night, I returned and it was the same thing, perhaps 10%
of the normal crowd size for a Friday. Then came Saturday. I go to pull
into the parking lot at the regular time, and there were no cars around
AT ALL except the employees. I was stunned. I went in, and Ive never seen
so few people in that bar, ever, on any night, in all these years. It was
worse than the previous Wednesday, and you never see that. The jukebox,
which is usually cranking until the Karaoke starts, was silent. The
employees and bartenders looks rattled and scared, roaming around
aimlessly.
From my conversations with them, they told me the same story over and
over. Nobody has any money to go out and have a good time anymore
(remember, this is a very local joint, not some here today, gone tomorrow
tourist hang out). Their customers all tell the same story, that gas is
too expensive, food is too expensive, and their mortgages are swallowing
up all their money. They cant afford to go out.
This particular bar is also one of the rare ones in the area that closes
at 5 AM, therefore, it becomes a bartenders bar after all the other
places close up at 2 or 3 AM. They tell me that this crowd is gone as
well. The other bartenders and waitresss business is so bad, they have no
tips, therefore no money to use after quitting time. So this is not just
the tale of some dump that fell under the radar. This IS the place to go
around these parts. I think its a hell of a barometer, one that is not
being picked up on in the press.
So what is this saying? If the majority of the populace cannot afford to
go out for a good time anymore, and/or theres no tourists coming around,
are we already in recession and why arent we hearing more about this?
Even 9/11 or the hurricanes didnt affect business this much. What I saw
was truly outside the bell curve. Where else is this happening? These
people are truly frightened for their livelihoods.
This may just be a localized phenom, but I wonder about that. To quote my
friend Mel, People I know, older couples up north tell me they cant
afford to come down here anymore. They got too much to worry about back
up north.
One more Mel quote: My friends that work at local Publix supermarkets say
the average ticketper customer is way down, as if theyre getting very
selective in what theyre buying.
Just one mans observations. Anybody else out there have any anecdotal
evidence?
Gene
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