look at the chart of money supply
Bernanky is saying one think to public
,,but in reality ,supply LESS liqidity to banks,
maybe this is why citi had to go elsewere for
funds,
this does not look good for market
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, December 01, 2007 9:32 AM
Subject: 12/1 Report
Money
supply
This M2 money supply chart has been provided by Gordon
Harms.
Mutual Fund
Compliance issues demand that I not mention the mutual
fund that I manage by name or symbol in this
letter.
To see a current chart of the fund go
to:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=APHAX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
For information about the fund go to:
http://www.thealphafunds.com/index.htm
The fund now has service class shares
available.
December
December has been one of the better months for the
market.
Since 1928 the SPX has been up 75% of the time in
December with an average gain of 1.4%. During the
3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the performance has been even
better up 84% of the time with an average gain of
2.3%.
The OTC has been a little more volatile, it has been
up 61% of the time in December with an average gain of 1.5% and during the
3rd year of the Presidential Cycle up 73% of the time with an
average gain of 4.9%. The average was helped noticeably by
a 21.3% gain in
1999.
The charts below show the daily averages for December
for all years and for the 3rd year of the Presidential
Cycle. The average month has 21 trading days and the charts
have been calculated by averaging the daily return for the first 11 trading
days and the last 10. If the month had more than 21 trading
days some of the days in the middle were ignored and if it had less than 21
trading days some of the days in the middle were counted twice.
Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the 1st trading
day and at 5 day intervals after that. A solid vertical
line has been drawn on the 11th trading day, the dividing
point.
The 1st chart shows the OTC average for all
years in blue and the average for the 3rd year of the Presidential
Cycle in green.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it
uses SPX data.
Conclusion
The market is at the beginning of an up
move that should last a couple
months.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday
December 7 than they were on Friday November
30.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please
tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html
If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject
line.
Last weeks negative forecast was a
miss.
Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD
W18/L18/T12
Disclaimer: Mike Burk is an
employee and principal of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered
investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be
reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. Recent
(last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack
(fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal
(wsj.com). Historical data is from Barron’s and ISI price
books. The views expressed are provided for information
purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.
Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without
notice.
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