Short Term
The Hindenburg Omen, a signal developed by Jim Miekka, has received a lot of publicity lately. The signal has had some false positives, but it has also preceded every major decline. The parameters are:
NYSE new highs and new lows must both exceed 2.8% of NYSE issues traded (currently
93).
The NYSE composite must be above its level of 50 trading days earlier.
The McClellan Oscillator must be negative.
When the above conditions have been met the signal is in effect for 30 days.
On Friday all of the conditions were
met. Even 10% trends (19 day EMA?s) of NYSE new highs and new lows exceeded 93 (NYSE NH 148 and NYSE NL 102). The NYSE composite is 2 days off its all time high.
If we have a follow up to the upside I would use it to short
oil is also at 95-96 a barrel
gold hit 810 Friday
and
money markets are not safe anymore as they contain 5-25% of bad quality mortgage loans!!!
Citibank ceo is out
etc,,,
Ben