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My take is purely fundamental, and therefore I have bought protection
by buying out of the money puts to protect my portfolio. My reason
for this is indicative of the current business climate in my
industry. Consumer demand is waning and sales are slowing beyond
normal seasonal trends. Speaking with the some of freight forwarders
that deliver our goods indicate that there is less demand for
transportation of goods and the drivers are putting in less over
time. This of course is usually the most busy season of the year for
these driver and the news became apparent with Ryder indicating a
slow down in their revenue today. It would be interesting to look at
the truck / trailer manufacturing sector and see how they are doing
as they are usually a leading indicator and are gauge for the pulse
of the economy. Therefore, technicals may indicate a bullish trend;
however, all it takes is news indicating a change in the fundamental
outlook of our economy and look out below. I would also listen in on
the Costco earnings coming up on Wednesday to see what they have to
say.
Richard
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "EAdamy" <eadamy@xxx> wrote:
>
> One other thing. I think investors are expecting the next big hit
to come
> from a downturn in the US indexes, however it looks to me like the
> correction is likely to be triggered from the extreme levels of the
Brazil
> (Bovespa), China (Shanghai), and India (Jakarta) indexes.
>
> Earl
>
> _____
>
> From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
> Behalf Of EAdamy
> Sent: Monday, October 08, 2007 6:38 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: [RT] What's next
>
>
>
>
> I think that intermediate term the market is more bullish than
bearish
> (weekly chart, breadth models, VIX, and credit spreads have all
largely
> confirmed the rally in equities), however it needs a modest
correction to
> correct divergences on the daily charts and breadth models. I do
think we
> see SPX 1671 before we turn down big-time.
>
> Earl
>
> _____
>
> From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
> Behalf Of Jim White
> Sent: Monday, October 08, 2007 4:16 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] What's next
>
>
>
>
> The longer term sentiment remained bearish to the close HOWEVER,
the trend
> was bullish from about noon and the indexes closed above the level
at that
> time. This was largely an inside day and tells us nothing about the
longer
> term expectations for the markets. I am looking for closing
weakness to
> confirm a bearish reversal and until that happens, all bets are off.
> I closed two shorts for profits today but am worried about two I
carried
> overnight.
>
> Jim
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Jim White <mailto:jwhite43@...>
> To: realtraders@ <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, October 08, 2007 9:31 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] What's next
>
>
>
>
> My measure of longer term sentiment went bearish at 10:23 this
morning. If
> it closes in this condition, I expect more downward pressure this
week.
>
> Jim
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Jim <mailto:jwhite43@...> White
> To: realtraders@ <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Friday, October 05, 2007 9:59 AM
> Subject: [RT] What's next
>
>
>
>
> Let's have some discussion here!
>
> Will today's spike up move mark a high from which the markets will
decline
> or are we headed higher next week?
>
> Since yesterday was an inside day for the indices,my work indicates
a high
> today and a decline to around 10/17. If we reach a higher high on
Monday,
> the forecast has failed.
>
> If you express an opinion, please explain your rational.
>
> Regards,
>
> Jim White
>
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