|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I don't have specific proof of this but from all I've read, I believe
there is sufficient capital on the side lines to push the market. I
also believe there is still a lot of short positions out there to be
covered. The lenders may have had their head handed to them by
their own greed for commissions, fees and interest but they deserve it
all. They were making bad loans and they knew it. I have zero
sympathy for them and only hope the government does nothing to bail
them. This aside, the world is afloat in cash. Not only in
America but elsewhere. We have allowed the sub-prime mess to
infiltrate our opinions of the financial status of America and the world
but it's nearly all a problem related to mortgages and not those loans
were not investments. One only need to look at the number of new
people on Forbes wealthiest people to see how wealth is growing and that
money needs a home. Compared to hedge funds, equity funds and junk
bonds, the stock market is a save haven.
Have a good weekend
Bob
At 02:31 PM 10/5/2007, you wrote:
Thanks Bob for an
excellent assessment of the current fundamental environment. Your
assessment of continued market strength would appear to depend on
continued supplies of investment capital. Do you have any information to
indicate substantial supplies of capital still on the sidelines and able
to drive the market higher?
Jim
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: BobsKC
- To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Friday, October 05, 2007 10:45 AM
- Subject: Re: [RT] What's next
- "What's due to happen is what's been happening until it doesn't
happen any more" (Jimmy the Greek)
- Fundamentally, where will money go? Bonds? I don't think
so. Bond rates are barely above, (if at all), the inflation
rate. If one doesn't believe in U.S. companies and the U.S.
economy, then there are plenty of ADR's out there on American
exchanges. Many American based companies are now world wide
businesses no longer dependent only on the U.S. economy. The Fed
will not hurt the market much now regardless of if they do nothing or cut
again since doing nothing proves the economy is ok and cutting provides
short term relief.
- Technically, we are no doubt over-bought but that can be corrected in
less than a week and then, it's back to "where do I put my
investment money?" The commodity story is solid, world
wide. Tech is now realizing the dreams that drove the NAS into the
bubble of 1999. Financials are under-valued due to sub-prime fears
and are poised to come out of those fears. Housing recovery is
ahead but far enough ahead to be a future driver of the markets.
Retailers are in some trouble, (especially the low and lower middle end)
and I expect the high end to begin to hurt as the wealthy look toward an
end to the Bush tax decreases and a Democratic government that will add
even more taxes to placate their voting base. Still, over-all ..
the market appears compelling to me and while I will short it from time
to time, I will consider any serious pull back to be a buying
opportunity. (At least for now). The day may well come that
our children and our younger members here will have to pay the checks we
are writing today but not now. For now, I am still holding a lot of
cash and making great returns playing small cap, under-valued, China
stocks. (The best of which is SDTH)
- Good luck to all of you
- Bob
- At 12:59 PM 10/5/2007, you wrote:
- Let's have some discussion here!
-
- Will today's spike up move mark a high from which the
markets will decline or are we headed higher next week?
-
- Since yesterday was an inside day for the indices,my
work indicates a high today and a decline to around 10/17. If we reach a
higher high on Monday, the forecast has failed.
-
- If you express an opinion, please explain your
rational.
-
- Regards,
-
- Jim White
__._,_.___
![]()
__,_._,___
|