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My take is that the dollar is approaching a new price level against
other currencies similar to what happened in the early 80's. This reset
is inevitable due to global market forces. China is the giant vacuum
for money flows, just like Japan was in the 80's. Long term the only
way for the dollar to reverse course is to raise our rate of GDP
significantly so that we would be on par with other high growth
economies or simply to raise interest rates and stop printing money.
Another approach is to reduce our debt. However, until the politicians
decide to stop spending ourselves into the poor house, there really
does not seem to be much long term opportunity for the dollar.
Therefore, short the dollar long term at least until mid next year
prior to elections.
Richard
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