It's possible there could be a legitimate reason but it is also possible
that someone could throw darts at a stock list and make a huge amount of
money. ie: *Anything* is *possible* but the question is, how
likely is it? We must all make decisions based on the probability of
things and not on the possibility of things. As an advocate of
methodologies, you surely would agree with this
statement.
Bob
At 12:48 PM 3/27/2007 -0700, you wrote:
Bob,
Generally I agree with the
content of your post, especially concerning those methods that are actively
sold through mass advertising or direct mail. However, there may be
legitimate reasons for making a new technology available to others. Have you
ever heard of The Prediction Company? After developing a superior trading
methodology based on nonlinear dynamic modeling, this group of scientists
sold it to a major bank. This group had divergent interest and wished to
pursue other activities. (Read "The Predictors" by Thomas Bass.) Was this a
legitimate reason to sell?
Let's take
another example. Active traders know that it is a time consuming and often
stressful occupation. Suppose an individual developed an outstanding
methodology and traded it successfully for a number of years before being
advised, for health reasons, to reduce his activity. Would the desire to
extract a stream of income from the methodology without the day-to- day
trading activity be a legitimate reason to sell it to
others?
And there is the issue of scale.
Suppose the same individual above traded a six figure portfolio successfully
for a number of years using a break-through technology. Then he was offered
an opportunity to apply it to a hundred million dollar fund. Would it be a
legitimate reason to sell?
So, perhaps you
can agree that there may be legitimate reasons for making new technology
available to others. As always a buyer should exercise due diligence but it
is the value of the product which should be questioned - not the motivation
of the seller.
Best
Regards,
Jim
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: BobsKC
- To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
- Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 11:18 AM
- Subject: [RT] For newbies
- Some time ago, I changed the rules on our list to allow advertising as
long
- as it didn't get out of hand and there was no pumping. I am pleased to
say
- that it has not gotten out of hand and has been minimal and
- professional. Still, it is only a matter of common sense to think
about
- trading systems and stock picking systems. If the person promoting
their
- product really had a holy grail of trading, why would they need to
sell it
- to you? Put another way, if you have the combination to the safe, why
sell
- it to someone else? Just go in there and get all the gold you want,
when
- you want. Selling the combination only puts people in your line of
access
- and redefines how much gold there is to split since nothing is in
endless
- supply.
- Having said that, I do not doubt the validity of those who are trying
to
- sell trading systems. I only doubt the need to do it if their systems
work
- so well. You should ask yourself these same questions before you begin
- writing checks.
- Hope everyone has a great trading week.
- Bob