Re: [RT] Monday 3/12 - A Down Day, RealTraders Email List Archive

Charles,

For years and years now (ever since I bought an original IBM PC) I been trying to use volume to track the market. For most of those years I have been using the formula of Prev + ((V / average(V, 30) * (( C - C[1])/(H - L))) for each of the Dow 30 component stocks and then adding all 30 results together. Trouble is volume analysis for big cap stock does not work as well as for mid-cap (i.e., less widely held companies). I've assumed this is because much of the volume in these biggest of big cap stocks is generated by program trading and thus volume is not neccessarily a precurser/indicator to future price movements. Lately to circumvent this problem, I've used surrogates for the Dow 30 - thus my "unique market volume" statement.

Pete

From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Monday 3/12 - A Down Day
Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2007 14:44:18 -0500

Pete-

Would you care to discuss how one quantifies "unique market volume"? Looks like this might be more important for

intra-day trading? For example, using simple observation, the signal to act on Monday 3/12 would have been taken on

Friday 3/09 for an end-of-day trader; and in HINDSIGHT one might have been tempted to think that Tuesday 3/13 might

also have been an up day?

In short, the unanswered question to the problem seems to be one of timing. Any volume indicators that said Tuesday

3/13 was destined to be a down day? (:-)

Tks for any feedback.

Chas

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----- Original Message -----

From: Pete Lieber

To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com

Sent: Monday, March 12, 2007 7:24 AM

Subject: [RT] Monday 3/12 - A Down Day

Attached is a gif of an Excel chart that uses unique market volume to try and predict short term market direction. As the chart indicates the market should be down for a significant part of the day for Monday 3/12.

I use Excel rather than Tradestation or Metastock because it is more flexible in combining price & volume from multiple stocks / industry groups. However it is a labor intensive process to load data into individual worksheets.

Can anyone please recommend a program where one can easily combine price & volume from multiple stocks / industry groups?

Thanks,

Pete