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Re: [RT] google



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Sorry should have read. ....gone out between 450 and 470 and not 250 and 270.  
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Ira 
  To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Monday, February 12, 2007 2:56 PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] google



  I traded options as a market maker and traded my own money.  There is a difference between that and trading for someone else.  I was able to retire in 1985, so I do know about options trading.  

  By definition the majority of the options will go out worthless.  All the calls above the expiration price and all the puts below the expiration price go out worthless.  Because my options went out worthless doesn't mean that I lost money.  
  An example.  Say the greater fool theory works and GOOG looks like it should go out at 460+/-.   If  I sell the 440/450 put spread for 1.25 credit and the 480/470 call spread for a 90 cent credit I have a total credit of 2.15,  These are prices that are currently doable.  If GOOG goes out on expiration day between 250 and 270 I get the credit.  Guess what My long options would go out worthless.  Did I lose money on the positions.  No.  what it did allow for was a limited risk and limited margin.  Margin is only applicable to one side.  The side with the greatest risk. In this case the call side.  Why do the spreads instead of just being naked short?  Ask those traders that lost millions in 1987 why you shouldn't do that. 

  Ira
  www.thetradersguide.net

    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: Ben 
    To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    Sent: Monday, February 12, 2007 2:24 PM
    Subject: Re: [RT] google



    most people  who just buy options wind up loosing money
    cboe  statistics says 80%

    there are however ways to still makes money   with options
    and
    the more you read ,the more the  uneducated gets confused,
    the hard thing  for most people, Is  to understand , how, when the stock   moves, up or down, it effect their position,

    example

    say you are bullish in xyz stock
    the stock is at 30

    you buy July  35 calls
    sell  June 40 calls and sell July 25 put
    buy 20 put,  this is even with credit that added money to your account!!
    this is a win if it goes down and win if it goes up,
    the problem comes when  you need to  REPAIR the position 

    say  the stock  drops to 25,
    now you are a loosing on your short  25 put
    and loosing on your  long 35 calls
    also
    making money on your 20 put and on your short 40 calls
    did  one compensate for each other? sometimes yes and sometimes no
    there is  MUCH more then meets the eye in options
    and after 30 years I  am still in first grade
    Ben

      ----- Original Message ----- 
      From: Ira 
      To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      Sent: Monday, February 12, 2007 4:58 PM
      Subject: Re: [RT] google



      Depends for what reason you hold long options for long periods as they can be the road to riches.  It is always the voice of the uneducated that comes up with these sayings. 

      Ira
      www.thetradersguide.net 

        ----- Original Message ----- 
        From: Mark Simms 
        To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        Sent: Monday, February 12, 2007 1:32 PM
        Subject: RE: [RT] google



        Of course. Any "fool" would have sold them already for a huge profit.

        A Chinese philosopher and trader once said: "Holding long options for long period of time = path to poor house"




----------------------------------------------------------------------
          From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Ira
          Sent: Monday, February 12, 2007 1:48 PM
          To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
          Subject: Re: [RT] google



          As of Sunday the greater fool theory says 460+/- on expiration, unless there is a great shift in open interest. 

          Ira
          www.thetradersguide.net


            ----- Original Message ----- 
            From: Mark Simms 
            To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
            Sent: Monday, February 12, 2007 9:39 AM
            Subject: RE: [RT] google



            Funny, but Guy Adami on CNBC's "Fast Money" called it right with a rec for GOOG 450 puts 2 weeks ago.
            March expiration I believe.
            Great call.




------------------------------------------------------------------
              From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Ira
              Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2007 6:21 PM
              To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
              Subject: Re: [RT] google



              Sorry the target number is 452.88 with interim support at 454.39.  I have numbers all the way down to 434.  With the downside pressure so over extended I doublt that it will go much further without a pause.  

              Ira
              www.thetradersguide.net


                ----- Original Message ----- 
                From: Ira 
                To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
                Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2007 10:00 AM
                Subject: Re: [RT] google



                If you are correct why not just buy 20 of the 470 calls at 11.80 the current offer.  They have a theoretical value of 14.69 with a delta of 45.  For $2360 you can control about 100 shares until March.  With Expiration Friday you could sell the Feb 470 calls for 2.70  to reduce your cost and if price rallies into Friday the spread will increase in value.  Greater fool theory seems to indicate that GOOG should go out at about 460.  

                If I remember correctly I have a projected low on the stock of 458.  I will have to check that later.  

                Just one mans opinion.  Ira. 


                 ----- Original Message ----- 
                  From: Ben 
                  To: astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
                  Cc: vincent 
                  Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2007 9:28 AM
                  Subject: [RT] google



                  is it  time to buy

                  you say you can not afford it too expensive to trade,,, WRONG

                  just trade 50 shares

                  say you bought 50 at 461  your total output  $23050 plus comm

                  if it only go up   to 471  you made   500 minus comm

                  you put stop loss at   456   or just $5

                  long term trading suggests we are near a bottom
                  see gif
                  right way to trade it
                  After it makes a lower low on monday you watch it climb
                  you put a buy stop at  $5   above the  mondays low
                  stop loss is  mondays low
                  real objective is about 475-485
                  Ben