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----- Original Message -----
From: Jim White
To: Realtradrs@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 01, 2007 9:23 AM
Subject: SPY Forecast
The following is an evaluation of the S&P 500 and its ETF counterpart, SPY. The reader is cautioned that forecasting involves the identification of possible future outcomes based on statistically significant evaluation of past events. Traders should never act in anticipation of a forecasted reversal but should use the information, along with real time interpretation of market action, to position themselves for a trade.
SPY is at monthly and weekly price levels where significant declines can be expected. A weekly sell signal was generated on the week ending 12/22/06 however light trading in the last week of the year did nothing to confirm a reversal was occurring. Trading below the weekly low of 1410.28 would provide initial confirmation of a weekly reversal.
On a daily chart a pivot high and reversal was forecast on 12/15 with a confirming 5 day decline thereafter. The next Near Impulse forecast date, 12/27, signaled an end of the decline and an intermediate buy signal on 12/26 added additional support for the expected up move on 12/27 and 12/28. An interim sell signal occurred on 12/28 warning of the decline on the last day of trading. The next daily forecast dates are 1/3 and 1/5. I would expect a low pivot forming on Wednesday and a short up move before a significant reversal and decline. Highs around 143.5 are expected before the reversal. More as trading evolves on Wednesday.
Best Regards,
Jim White
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