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Georg,
I have been trading Wolfe Waves on and off for some
time. Actually Earl and I have corresponded about the pattern from time to
time and have traded "potential setups" when we see them.
Several things other I would caution you on.
1. Trying to trade the pattern "right " off a
"possible top in the direction you are showing. In other words it would
have been better to look for the pattern that would have caused a reversal back
down, not one back up.
2. I think Earl's prior comment that one should look
for potential point #5 reversals being near a normal swing (a 1.0 fib occurred
roughly at your point #3, not your point #5), or off an EW count (we are
clearly in wave w3:W3 down off the high and not even close to a 1.618 minimum of
a W1/W2 retrace).
3.Attached is a gif of the ideal setup off the Wolfe Wave
website (not affiliated). Notice the comment sometimes the point #5
exceeds the trendline from point #1 to point #3. This is a must for me,
and I want to see it exceed that trendline, then come back through it. I
then place my stop at the nearest prior low (or high of the previous bar).
In your case, I see the reversal occurred (somewhat
after the up arrow you showed) but did pass back the trendline so a trade would
have been activated, however items #1 and #2 above were not met. I see no
good Wolfe Wave setup here?
Don Ewers
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, September 15, 2006 12:45
AM
Subject: [RT] Another failed WolfeWave in
WTLC
Good Morning:
I'm new here and hence
first want to thank Bob for inviting me to RTs. Also thanks to Kate and Earl -
apparently the WolfeWaves-doyen here - for their recent help and comments on
my questions and charts. As you are well aware, I am not an expert in the
matter at all, but have just started studying it in order to verify or to soon
discard this approach. Here's another example favouring the
latter:
![Emacs!]()
More comments and ideas are much appreciated.
Nice
day
Georg
From: EAdamy
Sent: Thursday,
September 14, 2006 9:30 AM
Subject: RE: Fw: [RT] Wolfe
Waves
My concerns regarding this particular WW
pattern (as shown in Georg's chart) are two-fold and have been expressed
previously. First, the #5 failed to follow-through on the first decline after
rising above the upper TL following #4. Second, triangle patterns seem to have
a high right of failure when price gets too close to the apex of the triangle.
I think it began getting too close when the first decline above the upper TL
failed to follow-through.
I am not
familiar with the 1/4 steps and the boxes don't seem to be marked into
quarters.
Earl
- At 06:53 PM 09/13/2006, you wrote:
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: EAdamy
- To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
- Sent: Wednesday, September 13, 2006 8:42 AM
- Subject: RE: [RT] Wolfe Waves
- As I suspected, point #3 on the ES was too shallow
for the trendline at point #5 to offer any resistance. #3 on the NQ gave
us a steeper line which offered a slight retracement at point #5, however
point #4 failed to pull back into the body to a point below #1. Probably
need a 162% retracement of #1-#2 at point #3 and a 50% retracement of
#2-#3 at point #4. The wide swings required should be an indication of a
blow-off in progress.
-
- Finally, my golden rule is to never, ever trade
against the tape when the AD volume ratio ((AD up - AD down) / (AD up + AD
down)) on both NYSE and NASDAQ are running above 0.50.
-
- Earl
-
- -----Original Message-----
- From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com [ mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com]On
Behalf Of EAdamy
- Sent: Tuesday, September 12, 2006 9:12 AM
- To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
- Subject: RE: [RT] Wolfe Waves
- This is a tale of two Wolfe Waves. All charts
are 15 minute. Upper left is ES ... note the slope of the upper line
which is so shallow that it fails to catch the really significant
reversal retracements at 162% and 200% ... it will clearly have to
exceed the upper line by quite a bit to reach the 1320 potential
reversal area. Lower left is NQ ... note the slope of the upper line
which is steep enough to catch the significant reversal retracement area
around 1624 without a huge run above the upper line. On the right we
have AD volume oscillators which are running overwhelmingly bullish. In
my view, the NQ WW is far more likely to work.
- Conclusion ... I believe it is important to have
a fairly steep upper line in order for the WW to hit the extreme
retracement zone required to offer a low-risk reversal. Let's see how it
works out.
- Earl
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