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----- Original Message -----
From: "Elliott Wave International" <customerservice@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, September 14, 2006 11:49 AM
Subject: EWI AM Trader: The Big OPEC-ture
> [Market Minute]
>
> "[Wednesday's] CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close of 11.18 just missed
> placing the index in a position to issue a near-term 'sell.' Whenever the
> VIX closes more than 2 standard deviations beyond its own 20-day moving
> average and then closes back within this band, a short-term ?sell? signal
> is given for stocks. Today?s close was less than ? point from the lower 2
> standard deviation band, which ended the day at 11.175. Still ahead is
> Friday?s triple-witch options expiry and next Wednesday, September 20, is
> the next Federal Reserve meeting to decide the fate of the Federal Funds
> rate..." ? Steve Hochberg, The Short Term Update, Wednesday, Sept. 13
> (online now). Read more online right now by visiting:
> http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?url=/products/ffs/default.aspx?code=oco&cn=amintro
>
>
> The Big OPEC-ture
> By Nico Isaac
>
> Remember that scene in Superman II where Lois Lane jumps off the railing
> into Niagra Falls, as a test to see if her nerdy companion Clark Kent will
> swoop down, save her, and reveal his true self as the Man of Steel?
>
> Well, in the past month, it seems the crude oil market has been doing the
> same thing with respect to OPEC. To wit, since hitting an all-time high in
> mid-July, crude has taken a flying $16 per barrel leap south to hit its
> lowest level since March.
>
> Replace the blue tights with a pair of pinstriped pants, and in come the
> members of OPEC to the rescue. At a policy-setting meeting in Vienna, the
> oil cartel made this promise: We will not "let the price of crude fall any
> lower than $60."
>
> As for how, a September 12 CNN Money column is quite candid: the members
> could "start to mumble about" a maintenance problem here or "drilling
> tie-up" there. OR, straight from the horse's mouth -- "OPEC left open the
> door for its first formal output cut in two-and-a-half years."
>
> No matter the method, there's little argument among the mainstream experts
> that "the extent of oil's fall depends on OPEC deciding what price it's
> ready to defend."
>
> Not so fast. See, care of the very same Money article, we also learn this
> piece of information: In 2004, OPEC cited the $20-$28 target range for oil
> in lieu of the fact that "stockpile levels were rising in developing
> countries."
>
> After months of rocketing to record-highs, OPEC "abandoned" its bearish
> posture. "It became apparent to the cartel," the piece observes, "that
> forces outside of its control, not fundamentals of supply and demand were
> the prime reason behind oil's spike."
>
> Bottom line, as noted by one energy strategist (who has since changed
> his/her name and moved to Tijuana): "Oil is extremely dynamic and any
> attempt to predict a price floor or ceiling is almost futile. You can't
> say oil won't go below $60 again. Who in 1998 thought it could go to $75?
> No one."
>
> Well, maybe not $75 exactly BUT somebody did foresee the long-term price
> of oil rocketing to Krypton; namely, our very December 1998 Global Market
> Perspective (GMP).
>
> At the time, the price of oil per barrel cost as much as take-out pizza
> ($10.35), a level we saw to be the jumping off point to a rise to "new
> historic highs."
>
> From there, crude soared over 250% to land just below its all-time peak of
> $40 per barrel. Next, the December 2000 GMP stepped up to predict the next
> two components for the original forecast:
>
> "We are soon likely to see a decline where oil tests the 50% retracement
> to the 19.13 level. [The decline will then] provide the foundation for a
> move to new, all-time highs. One relatively conservative projection would
> take crude up to $61 per barrel in the coming years."
>
> After a steep fall to $16.70, prices more than quadrupled to above $70 per
> barrel.
>
> Notice, GMP's long-term bullish call came long BEFORE the terrorist
> attacks of September 11, 2001, the war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Katrina,
> Rita, and more...
>
> (Don't wait around for Superman. Our Energy and other Specialty Services
> can help you anticipate where oil and other major markets are headed
> next.) Visit:
> http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?url=/wave/energy&cn=ambody2
>
>
> [Recent Commentary]
>
> Diagonal Triangles With Jeffrey Kennedy ? Part 1
> By Gary Grimes
> Futures
> Focus -http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amrc1&url=/features/default.aspx?cat=ff*aid=2594*time=am
>
> First, what is a diagonal triangle? Then, how can you identify such a
> telling pattern? Next, what happens when a diagonal triangle ends? And
> finally, how in the heck do you trade this exciting Elliott wave pattern?
> We address all these questions and more in this month-long Futures Focus
> series, where diagonal triangles sit first chair?
>
> Diagonal Triangles With Jeffrey Kennedy ? Part 2
> By Gary Grimes
> Futures Focus -
> http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amrc2&url=/features/default.aspx?cat=ff*aid=2607*time=am
>
> Edition two of Diagonal Triangles with Jeffrey Kennedy focuses on the most
> fundamental element of trading "the most dynamic of all wave patterns?"
>
>
>
> Where are my free updates and free update notifications? Visit
> http://www.elliottwave.com/ezine
>
> Questions? Comments? Ideas? Please send your feedback to
> feedback@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> You are receiving this e-mail because you signed up for EWI free market
> commentary. Should you wish to modify your subscriptions or no longer wish
> to receive these messages, please edit your email preferences at
> http://www.elliottwave.com/features/freeupdates/modify_notification.aspx?email=susans@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> This email was sent to profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx by Elliott Wave
> International, P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, GA 30503, USA
>
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<td bgcolor="#f9f9f9" class="market"><p class="MsoNormal"><b>[Market Minute]</b></p>
<p>"[Wednesday's] CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close of 11.18 just missed placing the index in a position to issue a near-term 'sell.' Whenever the VIX closes more than 2 standard deviations beyond its own 20-day moving average and then closes back within this band, a short-term “sell” signal is given for stocks. Today’s close was less than ½ point from the lower 2 standard deviation band, which ended the day at 11.175. Still ahead is Friday’s triple-witch options expiry and next Wednesday, September 20, is the next Federal Reserve meeting to decide the fate of the Federal Funds rate..." – Steve Hochberg, <i><a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amintro&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/products/ffs/default.aspx?code=oco";>The Short Term Update</a></i>, Wednesday, Sept. 13 (online now).</p>
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<h1 class="H1">The Big OPEC-ture</h1>
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<span class="recenttext"><i>By Nico Isaac</i></span></div>
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<td class="article" valign="top"><p class="MsoNormal">Remember that scene in Superman II where Lois Lane jumps off the railing into Niagra Falls, as a test to see if her nerdy companion Clark Kent will swoop down, save her, and reveal his true self as the Man of Steel?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Well, in the past month, it seems the crude oil market has been doing the same thing with respect to OPEC. To wit, since hitting an all-time high in mid-July, crude has taken a flying $16 per barrel leap south to hit its lowest level since March.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Replace the blue tights with a pair of pinstriped pants, and in come the members of OPEC to the rescue. At a policy-setting meeting in Vienna, the oil cartel made this promise: We will not "let the price of crude fall any lower than $60."</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As for how, a September 12 <i>CNN Money</i> column is quite candid: the members could "start to mumble about" a maintenance problem here or "drilling tie-up" there. OR, straight from the horse's mouth -- "OPEC left open the door for its first formal output cut in two-and-a-half years."</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">No matter the method, there's little argument among the mainstream experts that "the extent of oil's fall depends on OPEC deciding what price it's ready to defend."</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Not so fast. See, care of the very same Money article, we also learn this piece of information: In 2004, OPEC cited the $20-$28 target range for oil in lieu of the fact that "stockpile levels were rising in developing countries."</p>
<p class="MsoBodyTextIndent"><font face="Arial">After months of rocketing to record-highs, OPEC "abandoned" its bearish posture. "It became apparent to the cartel," the piece observes, "that forces outside of its control, not fundamentals of supply and demand were the prime reason behind oil's spike."</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Bottom line, as noted by one energy strategist (who has since changed his/her name and moved to Tijuana): "Oil is extremely dynamic and any attempt to predict a price floor or ceiling is almost futile. You can't say oil won't go below $60 again. Who in 1998 thought it could go to $75? No one."</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Well, maybe not $75 exactly BUT somebody did foresee the long-term price of oil rocketing to Krypton; namely, our very December 1998 Global Market Perspective (GMP).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At the time, the price of oil per barrel cost as much as take-out pizza ($10.35), a level we saw to be the jumping off point to a rise to "new historic highs."</p>
<p class="MsoBodyTextIndent"><font face="Arial">From there, crude soared over 250% to land just below its all-time peak of $40 per barrel. Next, the December 2000 GMP stepped up to predict the next two components for the original forecast:</font></p>
<p class="MsoBodyTextIndent"><font face="Arial">"We are soon likely to see a decline where oil tests the 50% retracement to the 19.13 level. [The decline will then] provide the foundation for a move to new, all-time highs. One relatively conservative projection would take crude up to $61 per barrel in the coming years."</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After a steep fall to $16.70, prices more than quadrupled to above $70 per barrel.</p>
<p>Notice, GMP's long-term bullish call came long BEFORE the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Katrina, Rita, and more...</p>
<p>(Don't wait around for Superman. Our <u><a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=ambody2&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/wave/energy";>Energy</a></u> and other <u><a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=ambody2&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/wave/energy";>Specialty Services</a></u> can help you anticipate where oil and other major markets are headed next.)</p>
<p> </p>
</td>
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<td valign="top" width="175"><p><a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amcg1&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/education/trading_education_series/online_trading_course/diagonals/default.aspx?code=amcg1";><img alt="" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amcg1&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/images/tutorial/web_ads/2548_CG3_Triangles_tutori.jpg"; border="0" /></a></p>
<p class="recent"><b>Recent Commentary</b></p>
<p class="recenttext"><b>"Upbeat Assessment of Diagonal Triangles With Jeffrey Kennedy – Part 1</b><br />
<i>By Gary Grimes</i><br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amrc1&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=ff*aid=2594*time=am";>Futures Focus</a></p>
<p class="recenttext">First, what is a diagonal triangle? Then, how can you identify such a telling pattern? Next, what happens when a diagonal triangle ends? And finally, how in the heck do you trade this exciting Elliott wave pattern? We address all these questions and more in this month-long Futures Focus series, where diagonal triangles sit first chair… <a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amrc1&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=ff*aid=2594*time=am";>Read on</a>.</p>
<p class="recenttext"><b>Diagonal Triangles With Jeffrey Kennedy – Part 2</b><br />
<i>By Gary Grimes</i><br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amrc2&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=ff*aid=2607*time=am";>Futures Focus</a></p>
<p class="recenttext">Edition two of Diagonal Triangles with Jeffrey Kennedy focuses on the most fundamental element of trading "the most dynamic of all wave patterns…" <a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amrc2&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=ff*aid=2607*time=am";>Read on</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amcg2&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/products/fjs/desktop.aspx?code=amcg2";><img alt="" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=amcg2&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/images/ezine/CG3_commodities.jpg"; border="0" /></a></p>
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<p><font color="#646464"><span class="optout"><a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/ezine"; target="_blank">Where are my free updates and free update notifications?</a></span></font></p>
<p><font color="#646464"><span class="optout">Questions? Comments? Ideas? Please send your feedback to <a href="mailto:feedback@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>feedback@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</a></span></font></p>
<p><font color="#646464"><span class="optout">You are receiving this e-mail because you signed up for EWI free market commentary. Should you wish to modify your subscriptions or no longer wish to receive these messages, please edit your <a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/features/freeupdates/modify_notification.aspx?email=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; target="_blank">email preferences.</a></span></font></p>
<p><font color="#646464"><span class="optout">This email was sent to profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx by Elliott Wave International, P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, GA 30503, USA</span> </font></p>
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