Please see
chart hopefully attached below. Nice paraboic top at 40 is followed by
approx. 13 dollar drop to circa 27.
Elliott Wave says
consolidations are continuation patterns. In orther words, since the
market dropped before the consolidation, the resolution should be to the
down side. If the first drop of 13 was Wave I, then CHK is now
in
Wave II
consolidation. Wave III should be the longest and strongest move,
typically about 1.618 times Wave I.
Wave I = 13 x 1.618
= 21, so subtract 21 from beginning of Wave III, which could project to the
14 ? 10 area.
10 is was the top
of the 2001 Wave I on the upside, which should be major support.
Bottomline, if you are making money trading CHK from the long side, it is
because it is currently stuck in a Wave II consolidation. I don?t know
how long it will be in Wave II, but this is a ticking time bomb, which when
it goes off, this stock is probably headed much lower. You will know
its headed much lower if it breaks thru the 24 area, which was the top of
Wave III on the upside. You can?t have overlapping waves on a primary
trend. Violating the 24 area would give overlapping waves and one more
indication that the primary trend is down.
Enjoy
the trading range with one hand on the rip cord and a plan to reverse to the
short side.
Moral of this
story: Holding on to your natural gas too long can be
dangerous.
Regards,
Norm
.
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of BobsKC
Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2006
2:25 PM
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT]
post questions
Chesapeake Energy.... Both
of you are depending on charts and I'm depending on earnings. The
stock has come down along with all the other natural gas issues because the
product has come down so far. Many do not seem to be aware that they
have sold 70% of the next two year's production at nearly twice what the
spot price is today. Throw in the CEO making a huge purchase in the
open market and the fundamentals can not be ignored. None of these
things take into account the approaching hurricane season and what will
happen to the cash price for natural gas once the first named storm moves
into the gulf. If those fundamentals are not enough, CHK currently
sports an 8.4 PE It's been over $40 in the past 12 months and
has a 10+% growth pattern.
So now, we have two views by
technicians and one by a fundamental trader. All views are interesting
and no one is always right or always wrong and neither are styles of
investing.
Good luck next week everyone,
Bob
At
10:27 PM 5/20/2006 -0700, you
wrote:
You see, Here is what I
mean.
I assume that this is Chessy
Energy that you are talking about.
I have
price in a range between 34 and 25.50. It is in an up move until
25.50 is taken out and then this retracement has a target price of
26. Right now it is at support from a longer term move down at
28.75. You should get a retracement here and the retracement shouldn't
take out the 33 level. If 25.5 is taken out the next target to
the downside is 22.
This current
retracement up should meet resistance at 30 dollars and hit a target of
about 30.50. About a 1 point move from here. If long I
would exit there.
So you would be
100% invested when I am exiting 100% and looking for a congestion area or
further down retracement before another up move would start.
We are both looking at the same
chart and seeing different things. Right now the major move is down
and anything to the upside is nothing to get excited about. The upside
is tradable and can be profitable. Like everything else in life,
what is seen is in the eyes of the beholder.
Once again, just one man's
opinion. Ira.
PS. Finals on Monday and
then a vacation. See all when I return. Have a good
week.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006
8:35 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] post
questions
Hello
Bob
I have attached a chart of the
perfect stop loss
the levels were I would buy
would be
at a close above
29.27 will buy 25% of position with stop loss at
27.98
will add 25% to the position on
a close above 29.78
buy full 100% of position
at close above 30.68
sell 25% at profit at
31.10
sell another 25% at
31.89
sell rest at
32.36 or move stop loss to 31.1 with increasing
that stop loss every time the stock makes a higher
hi
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: BobsKC
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006
10:32 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] post
questions
A kind and generous offer Ben.
It seems to me that traders try harder every year to
get ahead of historical swings and this time, it's the summer doldrums they
are trying to beat. So, instead of waiting for the dreaded summer
months, they are bailing now to beat the rush. The good news is even
these swings can be predicted if one just looks at the past performance of
the markets versus chronological changes and geo political events,
etc. Whatever the trend is, the traders will be trying to get ahead of
that trend.
The fundamentals are still good. P E's are in
line and earnings are growing. Inflation is low and controlled.
Employment is strong
while on the negative side, housing is falling off
and some consumers are being pinched with ARM's. I was 100% cash until
late this week when I began buying again and will continue to buy as it
falls.
To get your kicked off with your offer, here is one
for you. I already own CHK at $28.80 and will buy more if it dips
below that. The CEO recently bought a large block and they have sold
70% of this year's and next year's production at $10 so as natural gas falls
below $6 cash, it means little to CHK in terms of earnings. What do
you think about it?
Best to all,
Bob
At 03:19 PM 5/20/2006 -0400, you
wrote:
hello
you are about to make a
trade?
before making
it
post it
get a second
opinion
the answer will be posted with
charts to explain reasons why yes or no
Ben
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Business
finance uk Business finance
course Business finance
online course
Business
finance class Small business
finance Business finance
schools
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