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Norm,
I was at a presentation given by Henry Weingarten ... he asked if you were still around? He runs an astrology based fund now.
-----Original Message-----
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf of Norm Winski
Sent: Sun 7/9/2006 3:28 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] CHK
Please see chart hopefully attached below. Nice paraboic top at 40 is
followed by approx. 13 dollar drop to circa 27.
Elliott Wave says consolidations are continuation patterns. In orther
words, since the market dropped before the consolidation, the resolution
should be to the down side. If the first drop of 13 was Wave I, then CHK is
now in
Wave II consolidation. Wave III should be the longest and strongest move,
typically about 1.618 times Wave I.
Wave I = 13 x 1.618 = 21, so subtract 21 from beginning of Wave III, which
could project to the 14 - 10 area.
10 is was the top of the 2001 Wave I on the upside, which should be major
support.
Bottomline, if you are making money trading CHK from the long side, it is
because it is currently stuck in a Wave II consolidation. I don't know how
long it will be in Wave II, but this is a ticking time bomb, which when it
goes off, this stock is probably headed much lower. You will know its
headed much lower if it breaks thru the 24 area, which was the top of Wave
III on the upside. You can't have overlapping waves on a primary trend.
Violating the 24 area would give overlapping waves and one more indication
that the primary trend is down.
Enjoy the trading range with one hand on the rip cord and a plan to
reverse to the short side.
Moral of this story: Holding on to your natural gas too long can be
dangerous.
Regards,
Norm
.
_____
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of BobsKC
Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2006 2:25 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] post questions
Chesapeake Energy... Both of you are depending on charts and I'm depending
on earnings. The stock has come down along with all the other natural gas
issues because the product has come down so far. Many do not seem to be
aware that they have sold 70% of the next two year's production at nearly
twice what the spot price is today. Throw in the CEO making a huge purchase
in the open market and the fundamentals can not be ignored. None of these
things take into account the approaching hurricane season and what will
happen to the cash price for natural gas once the first named storm moves
into the gulf. If those fundamentals are not enough, CHK currently sports
an 8.4 PE It's been over $40 in the past 12 months and has a 10+% growth
pattern.
So now, we have two views by technicians and one by a fundamental trader.
All views are interesting and no one is always right or always wrong and
neither are styles of investing.
Good luck next week everyone,
Bob
At 10:27 PM 5/20/2006 -0700, you wrote:
You see, Here is what I mean.
I assume that this is Chessy Energy that you are talking about.
I have price in a range between 34 and 25.50. It is in an up move until
25.50 is taken out and then this retracement has a target price of 26.
Right now it is at support from a longer term move down at 28.75. You
should get a retracement here and the retracement shouldn't take out the 33
level. If 25.5 is taken out the next target to the downside is 22.
This current retracement up should meet resistance at 30 dollars and hit a
target of about 30.50. About a 1 point move from here. If long I would
exit there.
So you would be 100% invested when I am exiting 100% and looking for a
congestion area or further down retracement before another up move would
start.
We are both looking at the same chart and seeing different things. Right
now the major move is down and anything to the upside is nothing to get
excited about. The upside is tradable and can be profitable. Like
everything else in life, what is seen is in the eyes of the beholder.
Once again, just one man's opinion. Ira.
PS. Finals on Monday and then a vacation. See all when I return. Have a
good week.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben <mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 8:35 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] post questions
Hello Bob
I have attached a chart of the perfect stop loss
the levels were I would buy would be
at a close above 29.27 will buy 25% of position with stop loss at 27.98
will add 25% to the position on a close above 29.78
buy full 100% of position at close above 30.68
sell 25% at profit at 31.10
sell another 25% at 31.89
sell rest at 32.36 or move stop loss to 31.1 with increasing that
stop loss every time the stock makes a higher hi
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: BobsKC <mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 10:32 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] post questions
A kind and generous offer Ben.
It seems to me that traders try harder every year to get ahead of historical
swings and this time, it's the summer doldrums they are trying to beat. So,
instead of waiting for the dreaded summer months, they are bailing now to
beat the rush. The good news is even these swings can be predicted if one
just looks at the past performance of the markets versus chronological
changes and geo political events, etc. Whatever the trend is, the traders
will be trying to get ahead of that trend.
The fundamentals are still good. P E's are in line and earnings are
growing. Inflation is low and controlled. Employment is strong
while on the negative side, housing is falling off and some consumers are
being pinched with ARM's. I was 100% cash until late this week when I began
buying again and will continue to buy as it falls.
To get your kicked off with your offer, here is one for you. I already own
CHK at $28.80 and will buy more if it dips below that. The CEO recently
bought a large block and they have sold 70% of this year's and next year's
production at $10 so as natural gas falls below $6 cash, it means little to
CHK in terms of earnings. What do you think about it?
Best to all,
Bob
At 03:19 PM 5/20/2006 -0400, you wrote:
hello
you are about to make a trade?
before making it
post it
get a second opinion
the answer will be posted with charts to explain reasons why yes or no
Ben
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