Here is
something that every stock picker needs to know.
50% of all
individual stock price behavior is attributable to the general market trend.
Another 35% of
individual stock price behavior is attributable to its industry or
sector.
That only
leaves a 15% probability that all of your hard work picking individual stocks
will translate to anything.
Chesapeake Energy is a good example of
this prinicple. Despite all of the great fundamentals you cite,
CHK peaked when
natural gas prices peaked circa Oct. 1, 2005. So, why swim against the
tide?
It is far easier to
pick which way the race will be run than pick the winning horse.
Regards,
Norm
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of BobsKC
Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2006 2:25
PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] post
questions
Chesapeake
Energy... Both of you are depending on charts and I'm depending on
earnings. The stock has come down along with all the other natural gas
issues because the product has come down so far. Many do not seem to be
aware that they have sold 70% of the next two year's production at nearly
twice what the spot price is today. Throw in the CEO making a huge
purchase in the open market and the fundamentals can not be ignored.
None of these things take into account the approaching hurricane season and
what will happen to the cash price for natural gas once the first named storm
moves into the gulf. If those fundamentals are not enough, CHK currently
sports an 8.4 PE It's been over $40 in the past 12 months and has
a 10+% growth pattern.
So now, we have two views by technicians
and one by a fundamental trader. All views are interesting and no one is
always right or always wrong and neither are styles of investing.
Good
luck next week everyone,
Bob
At 10:27 PM 5/20/2006 -0700, you
wrote:
You see, Here is what I
mean.
I assume that this is Chessy
Energy that you are talking about.
I have
price in a range between 34 and 25.50. It is in an up move until
25.50 is taken out and then this retracement has a target price of
26. Right now it is at support from a longer term move down at
28.75. You should get a retracement here and the retracement shouldn't
take out the 33 level. If 25.5 is taken out the next target to the
downside is 22.
This current retracement up should
meet resistance at 30 dollars and hit a target of about 30.50. About a 1
point move from here. If long I would exit there.
So you would be 100% invested when
I am exiting 100% and looking for a congestion area or further down
retracement before another up move would start.
We are both looking at the same
chart and seeing different things. Right now the major move is down and
anything to the upside is nothing to get excited about. The upside is
tradable and can be profitable. Like everything else in life, what
is seen is in the eyes of the beholder.
Once
again, just one man's opinion. Ira.
PS.
Finals on Monday and then a vacation. See all when I return. Have
a good week.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 8:35
PM
Subject: Re: [RT]
post questions
Hello
Bob
I have attached a chart of the
perfect stop loss
the levels were I would buy would
be
at a close above 29.27
will buy 25% of position with stop loss at
27.98
will add 25% to the position on a
close above 29.78
buy full 100% of position
at close above 30.68
sell 25% at profit at
31.10
sell another 25% at
31.89
sell rest at
32.36 or move stop loss to 31.1 with increasing
that stop loss every time the stock makes a higher
hi
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: BobsKC
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 10:32
PM
Subject: Re: [RT]
post questions
A kind and
generous offer Ben.
It seems to me
that traders try harder every year to get ahead of historical swings and this
time, it's the summer doldrums they are trying to beat. So, instead of
waiting for the dreaded summer months, they are bailing now to beat the
rush. The good news is even these swings can be predicted if one just
looks at the past performance of the markets versus chronological changes and
geo political events, etc. Whatever the trend is, the traders will be
trying to get ahead of that trend.
The fundamentals are still good. P
E's are in line and earnings are growing. Inflation is low and
controlled. Employment is strong
while on the
negative side, housing is falling off and some consumers are being pinched
with ARM's. I was 100% cash until late this week when I began buying
again and will continue to buy as it falls.
To get your kicked
off with your offer, here is one for you. I already own CHK at $28.80
and will buy more if it dips below that. The CEO recently bought a large
block and they have sold 70% of this year's and next year's production at $10
so as natural gas falls below $6 cash, it means little to CHK in terms of
earnings. What do you think about it?
Best to
all,
Bob
At 03:19 PM 5/20/2006 -0400, you
wrote:
hello
you are about to make a
trade?
before making
it
post
it
get a second
opinion
the answer will be posted with
charts to explain reasons why yes or no
Ben
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finance uk Business finance
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