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You're still missing the whole point.
Believe what you will.
Have a nice weekend.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 9:29
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
Bob,
You will be taken to task when you "poke" someone
who has the courage and cares enough to
post an opinion on the market
direction or an equity or future contract. Most won't do that and
to
have a member like Ben who believes in his work sufficiently to share his
opinion, is a gift for
this list and we continue to hope Ben will inspire
others to share ideas and opinions. If not for
that, what purpose
does this list serve? When he or anyone else is wrong, does it help you
or
anyone else to point it out to them on the list? Or do such
pot shots simply discourage all our
members from sharing ideas? Most
of the membership on this list couldn't give a "flying fux"
about
political correctness but they do care about courtesy and needless reminders
to someone
who was trying to help, that they were wrong on a certain
occasion.
Most people who do post an opinion here cover their
thoughts with "unless this happens", or "as
it stands right now" or "unless
we break through x resistance" or some other general qualifier
that lets
them "off the hook". How many people do you see post to RT and simply
say, "this will
happen at x time"? Very few and when we insult these
few by reminding them they were wrong
on a given occasion, I can nearly
guarantee you we will lose even those few.
So, all I ask from everyone
is to appreciate people like Ben. A man with the bravery and belief in
his work to share it with you at no cost or consideration. He won't
be right every time. Neither
will you. Neither will
anyone. At least applaud him for believing in
himself.
Bob
At 07:40 AM 3/4/2006 -0600, you wrote:
First,
it wasn't ridicule. Second, the problem with these forums is you can't
challenge anything or anyone without being accused of ridicule (or censored
or kicked out).....the scourge of political
correctness.
I'm sorry but I
guess I don't see the value in saying a market may go up or it may go down,
and it will do that over the course of the next 2-4 days. As for 1300,
the S&P has been range bound for months with 1300 (futures) marking the
top of the range, so where the h-ll else is it going to go if it goes
up???
For the better part of
the past 18 months Ben and others have been calling a top and warning us to
liquidate our holdings, and depending on the index of your choosing they've
continued to rally from 10-20%+. If you call a top after every big
down day during an uptrend you will be eventually be right but you'll also
be broke if you trade that opinion. I don't believe Ben is broke and I
don't believe he marries his opinions - I believe he adapts when they are
wrong which for all of us is more often than not. I was just
commenting on his post which made no sense to me.
The funny thing about all this is that I agree with
their assessment and have for the same length of time, and I've been wrong
too. And I still think the stock market(s) are a huge accident waiting
to happen. But over the years I've learned not to trade my opinion
because opinions & forecasts play no role in trading - unless you want
to lose. As for which side owns time, my fills are based on Price and
as long as that's the case I'm going to trade
Price.
Is this time different
though? Maybe. The indexes have been range hopping for a very
long time.....we churn endlessly for months and then over the course of a
few days we move to a new range and resume the churning. But if you
look at a Dow chart you can see that these ranges have been getting
progressively smaller - a sign it's getting tired? We've had more (and
welcome) volatility recently which you frequently see at a top after a long
(and incredibly boring) grind up. We've also had a number of weak
closes lately which could also be a sign that the bears are warming
up. However, if you look at any of the daily/weekly/monthly charts
none of them have broken down (yet), so the trend is the trend until it
isn't even if it looks to have a foundation constructed of toothpicks.
But despite my overly bearish
opinion on the stock market(s), if the DAX sets up long Monday morning I'm
going to buy it, and if it trends higher I'll continue to buy it until it
tells me to stop even though in my view it will be "wrong" the entire
time. Trading isn't about being right, it's about winning. And
the biggest challenge isn't becoming profitable, it's staying that
way. And this is the only way I've discovered that allows you to do
both.
If you choose to believe
that this is ridicule, well, that's your problem, not
mine.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dan Harels" <harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 12:19 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> Bob,
>
>
There are many bright people on this forum and ridicule, no matter how
> subtle or "clever", does not encourage dialog.
>
>
Dan
>
>
> >From: "Bob" <BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
>Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 18:38:18
-0600
> >
> >How could it have been wrong?
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> > From:
Ron Cernokus
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 4:53
PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
>
>
> >
> > Here is Ben's call from last
Tuesday.
> >
> > S
> >
>
>
> > volume still points to 1300-1310
on sp500,
> > that should be accomplished
in 2-4 days,
> > if not ,all bets are off
,and the top is in,
> > Ben
>
>
> >
> > SPONSORED LINKS Business finance
uk Business finance course Business
> >finance online
course
> > Business
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>
>schools
> >
> >
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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>
> a.. Visit your group "realtraders" on the
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> >
> > b.. To
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> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > c..
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>
>Service.
> >
> >
>
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