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There are two
important updates today ...
1. A 10 year high
alert condition on the S&P 500 for when this up move stops. This
will be a new Bull rally
on the next up move, or, this could be a
market top forming. And please read ...
2. "Mia Culpa, I give ... the white flag is up ...
Please Stop!" Please read this
commentary regarding the
recent web and computer attacks we have been
seeing after our Transportation Index report was
posted.
Below, is the S&P 500 weekly chart with its MACD that I
went back 10 years on.
The price chart is showing that it is at
1265 as of 11:40 AM, and it has 15 points or 1.1% before hitting its
resistance line.
Obvious, is the MACD's action over the
last 10 years. Note the accuracy of how the S&P was in a bull
market
or correction relative to whether the MACD was positive or
negative. It is now still positive.
Also obvious, is the
MACD's action from 1999 to 2000. Note that the MACD made lower and
lower tops until
it crossed over to the downside and the Bear market
started.
*** Now .... look at the current series of lower
tops ... kind of like 1999/2000 isn't it? This is suggesting that
after
this up move stops, that there is a high risk of a
downdraft. You don't want to get caught in such a situation,
so
be careful and alert in the coming days.
*** Unless
the MACD now breaks to the upside and creates a new up trend past its
resistance line then this up
action could end dramatically fast.
*** This is only the second time in in 10 years that we have had this
deteriorating
MACD pattern ... so giving it respect is not a bad
idea.
At the same time, the
S&P 500 has moved straight up in the past 5 days at an exponential
incline. Its chart below
shows its 2 year resistance line with 3
prior hits and pullbacks. Be on the alert when we hit this
next resistance
point, as it is a high risk event. Such events
are preludes to new exciting upside moves, or
pullbacks/corrections.
Now is a time to deploy stops in a sensible
manner.
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2. *** Mia
Culpa, I give ... the white flag is up ... Please Stop!
When I reported on
the inequities on the Transportation Index 2 weeks ago, I had no intent of
rattling anyone's cage.
I reported on the issue purely from an
analytical standpoint regarding the stock markets and looked at it as
information that our subscribers should be aware of.
I was not on a
"mission" then, and I am not on a mission now. My sole purpose is to
provide the best analysis of stock market and underlying conditions that
will help investors ... especially retirees and pre-retirees who really
need to invest with an understanding of the risk levels at any point in
time.
Since I first made the mistake of "reporting on the
Transportation Index issue", I have been barraged with virus attempts to
shut us down. When I opened my emails yesterday, I received 310 emails.
Out of the 310, 56 were emails with a variety of viruses meant to infect
our computers. Fortunately, we have installed some very sophisticated
prevention systems that protected us. I did the calculation,
and 18% of the emails were virus attacks ... nearly 1 in every 5.
Tuesday night, was all I could take. I received a
call from a long term client and friend who was asking me about the
Transport issue. I said that I didn't think that this was something I
should be discussing on the phone. Less than a minute later, our phone
call was broken into by someone who claimed to be a law enforcement agency
... and
a few seconds later, the client was cut off. I hung up and did
not engage in a conversation.
Maybe this is some kind of big
"coincidence" ... that the phone lines somehow got crossed, and a call
came through my line by mistake. In any case, if this was intentional,
don't worry. I give up, and will henceforth not mention anything about any
discoveries of inequities that may exists. I will stick to my sole purpose
of analyzing the markets, and trying to help investors. I have no beef with
any big entity or agency and I did not intentionally try to cause any
group a problem.
My family comes first, and that's what I care
about. I
will leave any "reporting" to the New York Times or other newspapers.
So ...
please back off, its over ... and I won't discuss the issue privately or
publicly any more. For who ever was behind this ... all you had to do was
call me and discuss the issue and it would have been resolved without the
necessity for the viral and computer attacks.
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