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With
Regard To :))
what is a WRT median
line?
Rakesh Sahgal wrote:
> Hello Jan,
>
>
Not trying to stir up an argument here but I would
> like to submit WRT
MedianLines - medianlines(drawn
> before the fact and not post facto)
validated by
> subsequent price action DO provide pretty good
trades.
>
> As I had indicated in the chart I posted, the
MLs'
> were drawn long before the subsequent price action. Is
> it a
forecasting tool? I dont think so, but then it is
> for the experienced
people to dwell on as it is
> outside the scope of my competence. For me
whatever
> good trades have come from ML have been on the basis
> of
responding to price action AFTER it has been
> stopped by the MLs'. They
in essence are therefore
> providing me an explanation of why price is
behaving
> the way it is and the justification to make a trade so
>
to speak.
>
> Case in point yesterday's cash S&P(10/20).
It peaked
> almost at the medianline drawn from pivots dated
-
> 9/22, 10/03 and 10/13.Right above this(1.5 odd points
> above)
was the ML drawn from pivots dataed 6/22,7/7
> and 8/3.Chart minus the
10/20 price action attached.
> So anyone who had the chart setup and had
access to
> intraday data and could correlate the EOD and
>
developing intra-day charts was prepared for a good
> trade. The critics
might say you draw enough lines you
> will get a hit somehwere. Well we
all must believe
> what we must.Cant argue with that. Like you said
right
> in the begining - whatever one is good at, one must
> make
use of that.
>
> Best Regards
>
> Rakesh
>
>
--- jan4123@xxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> > As they say: use whatever
works for you, however,
> > the recent mkt forecasts which included
some great
> > an some not so great calls and the discussion
which
> > followed yesterday's mkt gave me something to think
>
> about.
> >
> > Having watched Median Line's pitchforks
which often
> > work, but often don't, especially if you draw
>
> without hindsight advantage, or Elliott or Hurst or
> > Wolfe, all
of them trying to forecast what the mkt
> > will do, but require that
you make the right
> > assumptions or inputs or you start drawing from
the
> > right point, etc. - i saw a great advantage of
> >
having a good, proven system which you follow
> > without trying to
forecast. And that despite some
> > past postings here which gave
system trading bad
> > rap.
> >
> > I normally trade
EC, but yesterday being in
> > Barcelona and having come home to late
for it, I
> > traded ES. The attached chart shows all system
>
> trades - I have additional rules which would
> > eliminate the
trade 11:47 -12:17. White arrows are
> > exit signals, but I also exit
on double tops/bottoms
> > combined with yellow bars, yellow band is 60
period
> > MovAvg band and green lines are Donchian Chnl lines.
>
> Other lines are also Donch Chnnl lines with higher
> > inputs -
20, 40, 60. The system is based on mkt
> > bouncing from chnnl lines
or, countertrend, on
> > double divergencies
> > combined with
very overbought/oversold condition.
> >
> > System
Trades:
> > 8:40-8:43 -125pts, 8:55-9:12 +200, 9:14-9:31 -100,
>
> 9:31-9:45 +375, 10:02-10:30 +275, 10:31-10:45 -150,
> >
11:01-11:43 +325, 11:47-12:17 -300 (not taken),
> > 12:17-12:27 -125,
12:32-13:02 +175, 13:01 - not
> > taken, very strong mkt, 13:29-15:14
+1225 ( stayed
> > in trade with lower Donchian Chnnl green
line
> > confining the mkt).
> >
> > This is not to
bragg, but in defense of system
> > trading.
> >
> >
My webmail doesn't accept more than 1 attachment, so
> > I'm sending
the 2nd chart by separate mail.
> >
> > Jan Philipp
>
>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
-----Original Message-----
> > From: Rakesh Sahgal
<rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Oct 19, 2005 10:51 PM
>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] My impresson
is that many had a
> > bad day
> >
> > Hi,
>
>
> > Was it really all that bad? There were clear
> >
indications for anyone who CARED to look CLOSELY
> > that
> >
a low will be put in place for a move to 1200(move
> > indicated by
some VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE people here).
> > Just look at the
evidence:
> >
> > 1. In the chart attached you will see that
price
> > tanked on 10/18 courtesy of the black medianline.
>
> This
> > median line has caused price to halt in it's
track
> > on
> > 3 occasions i.e. 9/22,10/3 and finally on
10/13. The
> > reliability of depending on this medianline was
>
> hence
> > fairly high, subject to other safeguards that
you
> > may
> > be using.This chart was first posted by me on
9/27
> > with the very same medianline.Just imagine the
> >
accuracy of people who are proficient with the
> > technique using
intra-day data would have achieved.
> > Personally for me MedianLines
have been one of the
> > most worthwhile things I have learned and I
cannot
> > thank Tim Morge enough for this.
> >
> >
2. Once the medianline in question had been paid due
> > respect then
the lower bollinger of shorter period
> > bollinger drawn on the chart
was pierced. This is
> > the
> > bit thats interesting and
which I am not able to
> > understand completely and hence unable to
explain.
> > When price pierces a lower bollinger band and a
>
> lower
> > bollinger band of a longer length is below the
>
> shorter
> > period lower bollinger, QUITE OFTEN this acts as
a
> > low
> > being put in place.
> >
> > 3.
Look at the relationship between the stochastics
> > of
> >
different lengths(same as the bollingers used). This
> > time around it
was positive. Shorter period Stoch
> > above those of longer periods.
It was the reverse on
> > 9/27.
> >
> > All of the
above observations are based on EOD data.
> >
> > Leave alone
all of what I have written above and
> > just
> > focus on the
Bline method/system that Judy aka Buffy
> > uses. That gave CLEAR
indications on an EOD basis
> > that
> > things were turning,
on an intra day basis one of
> > the
> > big days for
sure.
> >
> > As to this being a prelude to a trend change,
that
> > is
> > not indicated as yet by the chart. Most
probably we
> > will end up seeing the 1150 range as has been
>
> indicated on the forum(not by me)after a visit to
> > the
>
> 1200-1205 range.
> >
> >
> > Regards
>
>
> >
> > Rakesh
> > --- Deosaran Bisnath
<deobisnath@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >
> > > Just a few
observations, all of us have bad days,
> > > and good days.
>
> > Am simply stating my take on the disillusioned
> >
mood
> > > of a few traders
> > > I know, and a few
trading sites. Daytraders may
> > have
> > > escaped
unscathed, I
> > > barely made it into positive zone, mainly
because
> > I
> > > was not a believer for most
>
> > of the day, even though the market was warning us
> >
in
> > > no uncertain manner. But,
> > > when NASDAQ
futures relaunched above 1560, I was
> > > convinced this was headed
much
> > > higher. Huge amounts of stops were hit, new
>
> shorts
> > > entered, all the way up,
> > >
especially the rally from 1182 to close. Massive
> > > daily candle,
a KEY reversal
> > > day, is it? Pre-Option Expiration Wednesdays
are
> > > usually wildly volatile, but
> > > this one
was about the most volatile for some
> > time.
> >
>
> > > As usual, it was the big guys who initiated this
>
> > move and they were the big
> > > winners.
> >
>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
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