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I am not a great believer in Elliott but in something similar which
is
WHAT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE MAY HAPPEN AGAIN.
The attached is such a study. Using my Hurst_Passband
strategy
we first determined (if and) what cycles existed in the Gold contract
(this is third party data and I just set it up so that this was a
POINT
or $1.00/unit analysis) that made the most money.
Turns out that there appears to be a 55 week cycle in these data.
On that basis we selected an NBar length for pivot search which
would,
as close as possible, pick peaks and troughs near the highs and lows
of
the 55 cycle which is plotted on the chart.
Based on this we then had SwingMachine analyze all the prior swings
of this approximate length over the past 20 years and had it make
4 selected projections.
Here you will see one at 360, one at 400, and 2 near 420. There
is
also a projection of the next high out of each of these projected
bottoms.
Clyde
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- Clyde
Lee
phone: 713.783.9540 SYTECH Corporation 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Houston, TX 77063 fax:
713.783.1092 WebSite: www.theswingmachine.com- - - - - -
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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, October 18, 2005 02:07
PM
Subject: [RT] ELLIOTT ON GOLD?
Group-
I'd appreciate any thoughts or comments you might
have on the following information.
Wave 1 = August, 1999 to October,
1999
Wave 2 = October, 1999 to February,
2001
Wave 3 = February, 2001 to ???
It's difficult to get a clearly
defined 5-Upwaves from the February, 2001 lows to present. Yes, one
can count 5-Upwaves
so there current move is actually an 'extension';
or as I'm thinking; part of an A-B-C 'irregular'
correction. This is because Wave 2 can be clearly seen as encompassing a great deal of both price and
time; and any Wave 4 cannot be recognized as having the same
symmetry.
In any event; an irregular correction is what
occurrred in 1976. (Why market conditions may now be similiar to that
time
period is beyond the scope of this
explanation.) Wave A occurred from 180
down to 129. Then Wave B took the market
from 129 to a new high on the last trading day of 1974 at a price of
200. The final Wave C was then composed
of 5-Downwaves that took place during the first 9-months of 1976 when gold
bottomed around 103, in August of that year.
I'm thinking that we are currently in a similiar
Wave B; with the final Wave C to unfold sometime in the future in both
price and time. Using some mathmatical
formula; I get a price target of $366 and $368,
I'd appreciate and value a better, more correct
interpretation? Thank you for your time and attention.
Chas
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