[RT] =?big5?B?UmU6IKZewtChRyBbYXN0cm9maW5dIEhhcHB5IEJpcnRoZGF5?=

[Ben <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

market outlook from another view

The S&P 500 gave early signs of a reversal at [2], with a trendline break signaling faltering momentum. Wednesday confirmed the reversal with a close below primary support at 1200 on strong volume [3]. The target for the completed double top is: 1200 - (1245 - 1200) = 1155. Thursday [4] displays buying support, with a long tail and strong volume, while Friday [5] shows a weak test of the new resistance level at 1200. A narrow consolidation or a fall below the low of [4] would be bearish signs, but a close back above 1200 would signal a bear trap.

The index is testing the lower border of the long-term rising wedge pattern. A close below the border would warn of a primary trend reversal; and a close below 1140 would confirm. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) is below zero, signaling distribution.

The Dow Industrial Average closed below 10400 and appears headed for a test of primary support at 10000. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) reversed below zero, to signal distribution. A fall below 10000 would signal a primary trend reversal, but the most likely scenario is for the index to continue ranging between 10000 and 11000.

A rise of the Dow Jones Transportation Average above 3750 would confirm that the primary up-trend has resumed; led by the recent Fedex reversal to a primary up-trend. UPS remains uncertain. An index rise above the March 2005 high would end the top pattern.

The Nasdaq Composite closed below 2100, signaling a test of the lower border of the long-term bearish rising wedge pattern. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) retreated below zero to signal distribution.

Treasury yields

Long bond yields are climbing towards 4.5% on the back of increased inflation fears. The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) remains below 1%, indicating a flat yield curve, with negative implications for the economy within the next year.

Gold

New York: Spot gold again pulled back, respecting support at $460, before rallying to a new high of $474.00 on Friday. The metal appears headed for an attempt on $500.

United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 is testing support at the top of the earlier cup and handle pattern. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) retreated below zero, signaling distribution.

A close below the August low (from the cup and handle pattern) would signal reversal of the primary up-trend; while a retracement that respects the (same) primary support level would be a bullish sign.

Japan

The Nikkei 225 has cut back sharply from its' accelerating trend, following the retracement on US markets. This is likely to develop into a secondary correction: there are no major support levels above 12000 (which is likely to hold against all but the sternest tests).

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) fell sharply but remains above zero, signaling long-term accumulation. The long-term target from the earlier breakout remains: 12000 + (12000 - 7600 [the April 2003 low]) = 16400.

ASX Australia

The All Ordinaries consolidated at the start of the week after a NSW holiday on Monday [1]. Wednesday [3] fell through short-term support at 4560 signaling the start of a secondary correction, triggered by weakness in the US and profit-taking at the 4600 (medium-term) target. Another strong red candle followed at [4]; while Friday [5] signals buying support at 4400, with a doji candle and strong volume. We are likely to see a second wave of selling, with a close below the low of [5]. A close above the high, however, would warn that buyers have gained the upper hand and a recovery may be imminent.

Let's get recent events into perspective: the odds continue to favor the upside. If the index respects support at 4260, that would indicate that the primary up-trend remains strong. A successful test of primary support at 3900 would also suggest further upside potential; but a close below 3900 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend. 

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) fell sharply and appears set to cross below zero, signaling short-term distribution.

Keep an eye on the S&P 500. If that reverses to a primary down-trend then all bets are off: the All Ords is likely to follow.

For further assistance, read About the Trading Diary.

Colin Twiggs

When written in Chinese, the word crisis is composed of two characters
-- one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity.

~ J.F. Kennedy

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----- Original Message -----

From: TSE Mario

To: astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Saturday, October 08, 2005 2:22 AM

Subject: 回覆： [astrofin] Happy Birthday

Thanks Darrin.

Darrin Vernier <gphx@xxxxxxx> 說：

Hello,

 

I mentioned previously about the synchronicity of the eclipses unfolding in the 1987 crash period

and the current time.

 

I also showed some charts that gave a good comparison on a calendar date basis.

 

W. D. Gann talked repeatedly about the importance of the number 144.

 

There was a crash in 1929, a crash about 72 years prior to that, and a crash about 72 years thereafter.

 

He also talked about the importance of 1/8 of a price or time range.

 

1/8 of 144 = 18.

 

As Scot pointed out previously, we are busily celebrating the 18 year anniversary of 1987.

 

As JMH noted, all of those counts reduce to 9.

 

 

Here is a story about a day in 1987 known as 'Black Thursday' from http://mutualfunds.about.com/cs/history/a/black_thursday.htm

 

'Black Thursday was the first sign of the end of a great bull market.

What goes up, must come down. And come down it did. However, Black Thursday was not the nail in the coffin (that comes on Black Monday and Tuesday. In fact, Black Thursday involved a great comeback. Let’s get straight to the story…

12.9 million shares changed hands on Black Thursday (a new record – 4 million shares was considered a busy day back then). Most of the panic took place in the morning hours. The ticker tape machine fell behind by an hour and a half leaving investors madly scrambling to sell their investments without even knowing the current prices. Panic set in. People gathered outside the exchanges and brokerages, police were dispatched to insure peace. Rumors were flying. By 12:30 pm, the Chicago and Buffalo Exchanges closed down, eleven well-known speculators had already killed themselves and the NYSE closed the visitor’s gallery on the wild scenes below. Reporters learned that an important meeting was taking place at the office of J.P. Morgan and Company, involving many of the most important men in banking. After the meeting broke, Thomas Lamont, senior partner at Morgan – a company founded by a man who had help stop a panic in 1907, made the following statement to newspaper reporters: “There has been a little distress selling on the Stock Exchange… due to a technical condition of the market” and that things were “susceptible to betterment.”

The market moved up a bit after Lamont’s statement, but the real recovery came at 1:30 pm, when self-confident Richard Whitney, vice-president of the NYSE and floor broker of J.P. Morgan and Company, walked into the exchange floor. The crowd went silent. Everyone expected an announcement that the NYSE would be closed. Instead, Richard Whitney surprised everybody…

Whitney asked for the latest bid on U.S. Steel. “195” someone shouted. Then he promptly announced that he was buying 10,000 shares of U.S. Steel at 205. He immediately received 200 shares and then left the rest of the order with the specialist. He continued to make similar orders for over a dozen more stocks. Fear evaporated as investors became worried that they would miss the new boom. The market would have closed much higher if stop loss orders from earlier that day hadn’t been triggered during the upward surge. Needless to say, the recovery on Black Thursday was impressive, but so was the massive sell off earlier in the morning that gave it its name.

Friday and Saturday morning sessions held steady as everyone became optimistic with the market’s ability to recover. Those feelings were squashed on Black Monday

Black Monday was a terrible day in the market. Unlike the Black Thursday, no "hero" stepped in.'

We recently had our meeting of the Fed with the most important men in banking as I've previously noted as being a harbinger of the current troubles, then still to come.

Thursday a defiant GE announced a 4 billion dollar share buyback program and the markets have since had a slight respite.

We have our hero.

Though it is possible for the RH/YK effect to intervene, the eclipse cycle and calendar year cycles working together are thus far producing what Yogi Berra might have called,'Deja vu', all over again'.

On Black Monday the Dow lost more than 22% of its value in a single day.

Cheers,

Darrin

 

 

 

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