----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 4:26 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] market outlook
Since I didn't see any source identified in the original
post... The charts and report are from:
Congratulations on a great set of charts.
The interesting thing is that different people look at the same chart and see
different things. Using the daily chart only it would take a drop
of over 250 points in the Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude of over
1000 points. That leaves a huge stop. For it to even begin 10,400
would have to be taken out and there would be support at 10,000, that
would make for part of the move, 600 points +/-.
ON the up side I have a very high price target of
just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at 11,025 and 11,280.
There are resistance levels at 10,650, 10,725 and
10,960. These resistance levels are interim price objectives and
retracements should occur from these levels. It is the magnitude of the
retracement that will make the difference as to whether price continues up or
goes down to test previous levels as support.
Like your work Ben.
Just a little different input using different
data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 10:31
AM
Subject: [RT] market outlook
The Dow Industrial Average has broken
out of the intermediate consolidation pattern, closing above resistance at
[3], then drawing into a narrow range at [4], before further gains at [5].
Volumes were light until Friday [5] which experienced increased selling
(signaled by the weak close). Expect a test of resistance at 10900/11000. A
pull-back that respects 10550 would add confirmation; while a retreat below
10550 would signal further hesitancy.
The last year has established strong support at 10000/9750. There is
also strong resistance at 11000/11500, shown by price action from 1999 to
2001 and by recent highs in 2005. I expect to see a lot more price action
between these levels before there is a clear breakout.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong rise above the
zero line. If the indicator rises above the recent high, without crossing
below zero, that would be a further bull signal.
Transport indicators have failed to follow through on recent bear
signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the recent highs:
Fedex above 90.00 and UPS, similarly, above its May high.
The Nasdaq Composite is
testing resistance at 2100. A close above this level (the high of the
January to March consolidation) would signal resumption of the primary
up-trend. Friday showed increased resistance with strong volume and a red
candle (weak close); so a fall below 2050 should not be discounted,
signaling a test of support at 1900.
The market appears to have more
confidence in the (Dow) heavyweights.
The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than the Dow and
is close to testing resistance at the March high of 1225. A close above 1225
would signal resumption of the primary up-trend.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a pull-back that held
above the zero line. A rise to a new 6-month high would
confirm.
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