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tomorrow should be an up day(sp500) and small gain
in nasdaq
use it as gift to short
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, June 06, 2005 12:40
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
Been doing some different work with cycles.
Based upon that there should be an S&P low about June 16. Let's see
how it works out. If this is correct then your wedge should break
south. Of course there is always the chance that the low is
substantially higher then where we are right now.
There currently is substantial downside pressure
on Price. We shall see how effective it is.
Have a good week. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 05, 2005 7:58
PM
Subject: [RT] market
Are Rising Wedges a cause for
concern?
Historically, most rising wedges are 5
months long or less. These rising wedges are 29 months
long.
Just over half of the rising wedges have a
pullback. So far, these have all had a pullback on the DJI, NYA,
and
S&P ... in other words, they failed the wedge's support, went down, and
then moved backup to the resistance line.
The S&P's Rising Wedge
chart below has a classical formation appearance.
On
all the rising wedges studied that were 5 months long or less ... there was
a 90%+ down-further success
rate if it failed after the pullback. We
don't know two things right now. 1. Will these historical
statistics
apply to a 29 month wedge? ... and 2. We don't know if this
rising wedge will "fail its pullback" yet.
Right now it is sitting right
on its pullback resistance line.
That brings up the
third possibility ... some rising wedges have failed and then continued
on after a pullback
to rise to the apex (meeting point of both
resistance/support lines) and then have made a serious drop
of around
20%. Some have gone down much further. If this turns out to be the case,
then the latest
it would take to get to the top of the apex is the end of
this September or the first week of October.
The Rising Wedge for the DJI
will peak on October 12th.
This Wedge resistance test
is as important as any Major test has been, so be cautious and
watch
these wedges carefully in the coming days. If you want to
share today's update with a friend or relative,
I have provided a link
below that you send them the link to this page.
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