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Tom
Your call for a down move in this neighborhood is supported by my software which is looking for a down move in the SOX of 10 -15%.
I put the ishares to the test and the same holds there.
Regards
Ron
-------Original Message-------
Date: 05/28/05 06:51:10
Subject: [RT] Digest Number 1996
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There are 5 messages in this issue.
Topics in this digest:
1. market condition
2. Re: market condition
3. Projection for the Nasdaq Composite
4. RE: Projection for the Nasdaq Composite
5. three geeks and a cloned mouse
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Message: 1
Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 12:34:44 -0400
Subject: market condition
The NYA Index is still showing that this Institutional heavy index is struggling to advance while the NASDAQ and the S&P moves higher. It improved slightly yesterday, and moved back over its trading range's resistance line.
With Institutions not embracing this up move like the average investor, you have to wonder why, and wonder what happens when the average investor is fully invested if the Institutions don't start buying on volume. Currently, Institutional volume has been decreasing steadily on price up moves.
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Message: 2
Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 09:56:47 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Re: market condition
As market enters usual noon time siesta phase, not giving up much of
recent gains - daily and intra day, one can't help but ponder....
or one may join market in dozing for a few minutes... but, while
market may take on a toppish look, I can't envisage this rally
ending in a whimper.
Thus, besides another rally attempt at the close of a pre-holiday
week, there is high probability of several more points tacked on before it is
all over next week. SPM 1210? 1220? NQ 1585? 1600?
By which time VIX would be below 11, markets would be overboought on longer
timeframes - daily etc, and top would be in, for a few weeks of sideways and
down moves during the Summer. Sell in May, or early June, sounds fine to me,
come back in September for next phase.
Not me, I will be here every day market us open! or almost every day....
> The NYA Index is still showing that this Institutional heavy index is
> struggling to advance while the NASDAQ and the S&P moves higher. It improved
> slightly yesterday, and moved back over its trading range's resistance line.
>
>
> With Institutions not embracing this up move like the average investor, you
> have to wonder why, and wonder what happens when the average investor is
> fully invested if the Institutions don't start buying on volume. Currently,
> Institutional volume has been decreasing steadily on price up moves.
> > No virus found in this outgoing message.
> Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
> Version: 7.0.322 / Virus Database: 267.0.0 - Release Date: 5/27/2005
>
Home of the Caribbean Indian Diaspora
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Message: 3
Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 14:23:32 EDT
Subject: Projection for the Nasdaq Composite
Carl
******************************************************************************
**************
I’d like to make a few more comments on the weekly chart of the Nasdaq
Composite index you see below.
In April 2005 the index made a low at the 1890 level and in my view another
bull market upswing has begun from 1890. How far might it carry? We three
previous upswings in the current bull market that can be used as precedents for
the current move up. The first carried the index up 37.3% from the bear
market low of 1108 in October 2002 to the 1521 level two months later. The
biggest of the three upswings carried the index up 71.8% from the March 2003 low of
1253 to the January 2004 high of 2153. The last upswing carried the market
up 25.2% from the 1750 low in August 2004 to the 2191 high in January 2005.
If we add these percentage gains to the 1890 low of April 2005 we get upside
targets of 2593, 3245 and 2365 respectively. The third target based on the
percentage gain of 25.2% I think can be disregarded because the corresponding
upswing was actually part of a trading range and I think the market has begun
a breakout move. The first two targets correspond nicely to the targets of
2567 (50% of the 2000 high) and 3120 (1/2 point of the 1108 – 5133 range). So
I conclude that the upswing which began from the April 2005 low will in all
likelihood end the bull market and terminate very near one of the two targets
(probably the higher one) cited in my last post.
[This message contained attachments]
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Message: 4
Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 18:04:15 -0400
Subject: RE: Projection for the Nasdaq Composite
If the Naz stops at 2200 or thereabouts and begins a decline, won't that be a triple-top formation ?
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Friday, May 27, 2005 2:24 PM
Subject: [RT] Projection for the Nasdaq Composite
Carl
********************************************************************************************
I’d like to make a few more comments on the weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite index you see below.
In April 2005 the index made a low at the 1890 level and in my view another bull market upswing has begun from 1890. How far might it carry? We three previous upswings in the current bull market that can be used as precedents for the current move up. The first carried the index up 37.3% from the bear market low of 1108 in October 2002 to the 1521 level two months later. The biggest of the three upswings carried the index up 71.8% from the March 2003 low of 1253 to the January 2004 high of 2153. The last upswing carried the market up 25.2% from the 1750 low in August 2004 to the 2191 high in January 2005.
If we add these percentage gains to the 1890 low of April 2005 we get upside targets of 2593, 3245 and 2365 respectively. The third target based on the percentage gain of 25.2% I think can be disregarded because the corresponding upswing was actually part of a trading range and I think the market has begun a breakout move. The first two targets correspond nicely to the targets of 2567 (50% of the 2000 high) and 3120 (1/2 point of the 1108 – 5133 range). So I conclude that the upswing which began from the April 2005 low will in all likelihood end the bull market and terminate very near one of the two targets (probably the higher one) cited in my last post.
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Message: 5
Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 03:46:20 -0000
Subject: three geeks and a cloned mouse
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