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I strongly disagree with Carl's expectation of a sustained series of
rallies in the US Dollar into 2010, however that doesn't really matter at this
time. For now, the signs point upwards and we will have plenty of time to judge
the quality of the first rally. There is more to markets than pure technicals
and the fundamentals argue for further dollar declines. Fundamentals too
can change, so we need to stay tuned.
As you know, I did not see the SP500 reaching 1350 by this fall and still
don't. Again that does not matter at this time. For now, I too am looking for
SPX 1190-1200 because my breadth models are telling me there should be more
upside to this rally. The balance of my work, including COT, momentum, volume,
VIX, and credit spreads tells me that any move up will be choppy and fraught
with downside risk. Since I do not have strong confidence that it will get to
1190-1200 so will begin scaling into my short position at lower levels and hope
it does get there.
As always, opinions subject to change at the whim of Mr. Market.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 15, 2005 1:08 PM
Subject: [RT] USD
Sue,
You may also want to visit this website (blog) for
Carl Futia. I noticed
this weekend he posted some interesting long
term analysis on the US dollar.
http://www.carlfutia.blogspot.com/
I
have found many of his past long term forecasts to be amazingly
accurate.
For instance attached is a weekly S&P chart with some past
forecasts
starting near the low in 2002. No one is 100%, but I have found
he has an
admirable record over the years.
Don Ewers
PS- At a recent
lunch with him he shared he feels many people concentrate
"way to much" on
what is going to happen the next day or week, rather than
concentrating on
the longer term. Interesting thought . .
.?
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