Screen 1(MMR-SUMM Multi window
file)
A-SEL(Select Family + SPRXX)Average :
From the top:
1) The Family
Average is in the upper Bollinger Band (Positive).
2) The KST = -0.2
(Negative).
3) Family McClellan Summation Index = -2807(Negative) (Neutral is
+1900).
4) Family McClellan Oscillator = 317(Positive).
5) Select Family
Advance-Decline + Summation Indicator Status = BUY on 05/04/05.
6) Money
Market Rank (Acc 6-24) = 15 of 42
(Negative).
===================================================================
Screen
2(MWD-AVG Multi window file)
A-SEL (Select Family + Money Market) Family
Average:
Left to Right:
Monthly - The last candle is Green (Positive).
Prices are in the upper Bollinger Band (Positive). Stochastics, MACD, MACD
Histogram and DMI are Negative.
Weekly - The last candle is Green (Positive).
Prices are in the lower Bollinger Band (Negative). Stochastics, MACD, MACD
Histogram, and DMI are Negative.
Daily - RSI, MACD and MACD Histogram are Positive.
KST is Negative.
===================================================================
Screen
3 (MWD-US30 Multi window file)
30-Year Bond Yields:
The current yield is 4.63%
Left to
Right:
Monthly - The last candle is Green (increasing Yields, decreasing
Prices)(Negative). Yields are in the lower Bollinger Band (Positive).
Stochastics, MACD, MACD Histogram and DMI are Positive.
Weekly -
The last candle is Green (Negative). Yields are in the lower Bollinger Band
(Positive). Stochastics, MACD, MACD Histogram, and DMI are Positive.
Daily - Yields are in the upper Bollinger Band
(Negative). RSI, MACD and MACD Histogram are Negative. KST is
Positive.
===================================================================
Conclusion:
Bond yields moved higher last week. The picture is
almost the same as the last three weeks. Yields are still in the down trending
channel that began in June 2004. The difference this week is the daily
oscillators have turned up with a minor divergence on the RSI and KST. A move up
past 4.69% will place yields in the upper weekly Bollinger band and outside the
down trending channel. This will occur sooner or later and will be the start of
a move up to the top of a large up trending channel that began two years ago
with a top at 5.68%.
The Select Family average moved higher last week.
The picture is almost the same as the last three weeks. The Family McClellan
Summation has moved up from the bottom of its range in a Bull market environment
(excluding the 4-year cycle lows). The Family McClellan Oscillator broke the
high 02/04/05 so this rally appears to have more initial momentum than the
February rally. Prices are now at a downtrend line that started in early March.
There may be some resistance here but this line will probably be broken and the
Family McClellan Summation should move above +400, which is usually a sign of
the beginning of a profitable rally. The rank of the money market is also
displaying a positive divergence and has spent two weeks at a high level. The
downtrend has not yet ended but the indicators are suggesting a bottom is
forming for a final 2005 rally.
The Dow, S&P, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
Select Family Average moved higher last week. The indices have all moved into
their upper daily Bollinger bands but are all still in the lower weekly bands.
The NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and Select Family Average are at downtrend lines
that began in early March, which should provide some resistance. The Dow and
S&P have broken their March down trend lines. All the indices are still in
downtrends but appear to have formed large correction patterns since December.
We are probably forming a bottom for a final 2005 rally.
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