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Re: [RT] Worst week over

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there is  better than 80% probability that we make a lower low on both nasdaq and sp500 on monday
 
this will bring a most likely a higher close
this is a 4-6% nasdaq rally and 2-4% sp500 rally
this is also supported by the p/c ratio
however
1025sp and 1750nasdaq  is next after this bounce,
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: EAdamy
Sent: Saturday, April 16, 2005 11:29 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Worst week over

I'm not at all sure that the decline is over, however I think it may be over for a few days as a number of the indexes reached areas of support confluence. We had 6:1 down volume on NYSE and 9:1 on NASDAQ and these levels can be near extreme. I covered my ES and NQ shorts just before the close Friday and went flat as I think odds are good for a bounce on Monday. I will be looking to put those shorts back on any rally here.
 
In the bigger picture, major trendlines from the March 2003 lows were taken out in all major indexes confirming the severity of the break. That TL was important enough that I would not be surprised to see it re-tested from underneath. The volume on Friday's decline was very heavy so I would expect, at a minimum, that any rally will have to retest the lows. My view, at the moment, is that the market is signaling the high probability of a recession late this year.
 
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Jim White
Sent: Saturday, April 16, 2005 7:28 AM
Subject: [RT] Worst week over

The worst week of the year is over. Am I talking about the markets? No - I'm
talking about TAX Deadline week but it could be true for the markets as
well. My Total Market Model reversed to bullish mode on Friday and there are
a huge number of stocks signaling a reversal for Monday-Tuesday so my guess
is we have relieved most of the selling pressure and given any kind of
positive impulses, we will see an up market next week..
In the DOW 30 I would be shorting JNJ,MRK, PFE & PG and buying the rest. The
NASDAQ should also be strong next week.
Good trading.
Jim White
PivotTrader.com
Home of the Near Impulse Forecaster

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