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The following analysis was posted to my PivotTrader group and may be of
interest to this group as well.
Jim white
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <PivotTrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, January 29, 2005 3:02 PM
Subject: [Pivottrader] At A Turning Point
> In my last message on Friday the 21st. I pointed out on the attached
chart,
> the time and price area to expect a low pivot in the S&P 500.The low came
on
> Monday, the first Near Impulse forecast day, and a very mild three day
rally
> ensued. The presence of three Near Impulse lines on Thursday, Friday and
> Monday suggests a possible M type reversal This would be the high we saw
on
> Thursday, a low on Friday, another high on Monday then an extended down
> move. The possibility of a strong decline was indicated two weeks ago when
I
> reported the reversals in my longer term models. More confirmation came
when
> the rally failed to penetrate the down trend line connecting the 1/5 and
> 1/18 high pivots. Now, however, the picture is somewhat different.
>
> My longer term models are now beginning to show some bullish intent. For
the
> NDX 100, both the daily and weekly model have turned bullish. My total
> market model gave an initial bullish signal on 1/25 and the DJIA composite
> model went bullish on 1/27. I suspect this will all be resolved late
Monday
> afternoon and early Tuesday morning, the beginning of the next four day
> cycle. And I suspect the major impact will be the result of the Iraq
> elections. If Sunday's elections go relatively smoothly and result in
> positive sentiment, I expect a market rally of extended length and
breaking
> the down trend line.In this scenario the technical sectors appear ready to
> lead with semiconductors and internet stocks strong. If, however, the
> impulse from the election is negative, I expect bearish sentiment to
prevail
> and lower lows during the week. We shall see.
>
> For the pivot trader, it really doesn't matter it will just determine if
we
> are going long or going short. For those of you with a longer time horizon
> you may consider accumulating some attractive long positions.
> Monday and Tuesday should both be directional days so watch the opening
> sentiment to decide direction.
>
> Jim White
> PivotTrader.com
> Home of the Near Impulse Forecaster
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
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