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Dear Kevin,
It is good to see a contrarian. I agree with most of what you write and it
seems it took Greenspan to give a wake-up call on Friday.
I still like Special Situations that go counter trend as well as with the
trend, but they are not always the easiest to find.
I am hoping to do a write up of DHB and CCBI as time permits.
Thanks for your post.
Sincerely,
John
>
>
> As always the market has overshot fair value.
>
> Soon the cost of carry will favor the USD over the EUR
> after next month's FOMC meeting when Fed rates will surpass that of the
> ECB's.
> http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/continguts/centralbanks.asp?
> menu=interestrates
>
> The Eurozone is sitting with 9-12% unemployment and with oil headed
> back down to $33-36
> in the first quarter of 2005, there is little need to help Europe with
> a stronger Euro to defray such costs
> and can work on the unemployment problem they have.
>
> Though the US economy is the envy of the rest of the world, the
> advantage the USD has is limited,
> as fundamentals and technicals begin to influence trade and trading.
> Friday's mention by Alan Greenspan
> AGAIN of higher interest rates confirms that the USA is going to be
> subjected to at least four more rate hikes in 2005.
> This in-turn will make the USD stronger and cause a short term noose
> around repatriating US sales abroad by
> multinational conglomerates, as was noted by Friday's dip in large cap
> indexes anticipating future USD strengthening.
>
> Late in the day the euro/usd nearly lost 1.30, I see a head and
> shoulders on a weekly GBP/USD. My gut sells me
> that folks are piling on in the yen and I suspect intervention will be
> much more "openly" predominate.
> CHF is already showing signs of bullish divergence and lower oil, means
> a lower loonie, as Canada is the
> #1 country USA gets most of it's oil from.
>
> I should point out that gold has a $75 limit for those of you keeping
> on your toes. I'm sure if copper came a knocking'
> in your account this year, you'd pretty much be on the ball already.
>
> My only concern is the final outcome of the residential real estate
> bubble. Yes it is a bubble because prices failed to
> correct during the last recession. But when you're only paying the
> interest, the payments are the bare minimum which doesn't
> leave much room to negotiate.
>
> Mr. Kevin B. Bantz
> http://kevinbantz.com
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