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I was put out to the wash bin lastyear to the tune of a big
number...because of Mad Cow and selling out of the money Puts. I really
did well until the shebang of "one' cow.
I made most of what I lost back by buying stocks that can detect Mad Cow
contaminants in feedd and via blood tests.
Bottom line, this will be a recurring scare and shake out problem until
the government enforces at least a blood test before the slaughter of
every cow. The cost would be nominal. Likewise there are companies that
have tests to verify the safety of the feed which is not universal.
I will never trade cattle again until the government implements safety
measures that are already out there and can prevent scares.
FWIW,
John
> Sorry for the "no text" email...don't hit return when you are still
> typing the "subject"...
>
> For background, I trade 100% futures and 0% stocks, mostly because of
> the leverage. I made a little during the last run-up in the stock
> indexes by staying long the s&p emini, but do mostly hard commodities,
> occasionally interest rate or currency futures.
>
> If there are any live cattle future traders out there, I'm curious as to
> whether you have found a safe way to trade in these days (almost a year
> now) of "mad cow disease" scares. Today for the 3rd time (if last
> summers 2 back-to-back positives on preliminary tests can be counted as
> one time) in the last 12 months, being long the live cattle market as
> been hazardous to ones financial health, although patience would have
> eventually paid off in both previous cases. Do any of you who are more
> "in the know" than I am still trade the meats, or have you just backed
> off and gone on to other markets.
>
> Specifically, I trade intermarket and calendar spreads, and right now is
> a seasonally good time to be long Feb cattle and short Feb hogs.
> Trouble is, a preliminary positive mad cow test makes that strategy
> very short term painful. Any comments?
>
> Larry
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